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Whoosh.. - Printable Version +- Forums (https://www.theblitz.club/message_boards) +-- Forum: The Firing Line (https://www.theblitz.club/message_boards/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: Combat Mission (https://www.theblitz.club/message_boards/forumdisplay.php?fid=10) +---- Forum: CM Tactical Discussion (https://www.theblitz.club/message_boards/forumdisplay.php?fid=31) +---- Thread: Whoosh.. (/showthread.php?tid=39849) |
RE: Whoosh.. - PoorOldSpike - 10-15-2007 BertBlitzkrieg (FGM) Wrote:one of my PIAT teams shot 6 times at a Panzer IV from about 85 meters, hitting once. It gave a hit probability of 37%. Way lower therefore then the test by POS indicated. Of course, visibility plays a part too. Yes my numbers were just test figures to give a general idea only, but in actual combat the figures can fluctuate enormously according to firers quality, visibility, weather, target silhouette size, etc. Personally I'll always take the shot with a piat/baz/schreck if the hit percent is at least around 20%, because if it manages to squeeze off just 3 shots it'll have a better than 50-50 chance of hitting according to my primitive grasp of maths (3x 20% = 60% hit chance) RE: Whoosh.. - kineas - 10-15-2007 PoorOldSpike Wrote:Personally I'll always take the shot with a piat/baz/schreck if the hit percent is at least around 20%, because if it manages to squeeze off just 3 shots it'll have a better than 50-50 chance of hitting according to my primitive grasp of maths (3x 20% = 60% hit chance) Actually it's not correct, since 5x20% would yield 100% etc. You have to calculate the chance of a miss (4/5) and raise this to the third power: (4/5)^3 = 64/125 = 51.2% of 3 consecutive miss => 48.8% chance for a hit. RE: Whoosh.. - Bert Blitzkrieg - 10-15-2007 PoorOldSpike Wrote:[Personally I'll always take the shot with a piat/baz/schreck if the hit percent is at least around 20%, because if it manages to squeeze off just 3 shots it'll have a better than 50-50 chance of hitting according to my primitive grasp of maths (3x 20% = 60% hit chance) The big plus of a PIAT, compared to the other infantry AT weapons, is the fact that it is very stealthy. With a bazooka or panzerschreck you're lucky if you manage to shoot 3 times before getting pinned/panicked/broken/killed, whereas a PIAT may remain undetected shooting its whole ammo load ! RE: Whoosh.. - PoorOldSpike - 10-15-2007 Yes it's a real luxury to see your PIAT guy firing shot after shot without being seen..:) As for the maths in everything about CM, I learnt long ago not to take figures too seriously when I had a shot at an SU-76 with a shreck just for the hell of it at max range even though the hit chance was only 2%, and killed it stone dead with the first shot. My oppo vanished after that (who can blame him, his moral must have bottomed out) and I'm still waiting for his next file 3 years later..:) PS -On the other side of the coin my PIAT guy fired 6 times at a Pz IV in a recent 'Brits v 21Pz' game and missed every time at about 20% hit chance. I told my oppo and he said "I never saw it", so I told him to keep an ear out in future for the popping sound of champagne corks which is a giveaway of a PIAT in action, and also to keep an ear and eye out for the rounds hitting the ground near the tank. That way you'll know a PIAT is having a go at you from somewhere even if you can't see it, and maybe reverse away next turn.. RE: Whoosh.. - Extraordinarius - 10-16-2007 BertBlitzkrieg (FGM) Wrote:Observation about the PIAT: according to the tests by POS the PIAT has a hit chance of 44% at 100 meters. In a game I'm playing (against POS !) one of my PIAT teams shot 6 times at a Panzer IV from about 85 meters, hitting once. It gave a hit probability of 37%. Way lower therefore then the test by POS indicated. Of course, visibility plays a part too. Ahhh, yesss. Probablility versus actuality. Many, many years ago, I reached the final round of a convention tournament for a board war game. On the very last turn, with a dozen onlookers gathered 'round, I tossed the traditional cubical die in my palm and uttered the cursed words, in my best Bugs Bunny voice; "You realize, of course, that to lose this one I would have to roll six consecutive 'twos'." I rolled a 'two', and 'two', and 'two' again. I asked the umpire for another die and rolled yet another. I borrowed a third from my friend Roger who had been eliminated earlier, and rolled 'two' again. "Want to try mine?" asked my opponent, somewhat bemused. I said "sure".... and, if you hadn't already guessed, rolled another 'two'. Roger has been a Chicago Cubs fan for forty years, as well as my friend for thirty five. He says the two facts seem to be related. RE: Whoosh.. - fluidwill - 10-16-2007 LMFAO! We've all been there mate..... Cheers and a clickie for you, green of course. RE: Whoosh.. - mugger2006 - 10-17-2007 PoorOldSpike Wrote:PS -On the other side of the coin my PIAT guy fired 6 times at a Pz IV in a recent 'Brits v 21Pz' game and missed every time at about 20% hit chance. Hi there, This was my Panzer IV H. The only thing I saw were something little hitting the ground and causing some tiny craters. To my surprise I couldn't see any infantry guys shooting at me. My tankers weren't buttoned. So I reversed the tanks next turn. Then I got the picture of POS' PIAT team with no rounds left.:bow: Yeah I was lucky there. After some other rounds I suffered a minor defeat...:hissy: Greetings RE: Whoosh.. - Kelen - 10-18-2007 kineas Wrote:PoorOldSpike Wrote:Personally I'll always take the shot with a piat/baz/schreck if the hit percent is at least around 20%, because if it manages to squeeze off just 3 shots it'll have a better than 50-50 chance of hitting according to my primitive grasp of maths (3x 20% = 60% hit chance) Actually that's not correct either. the odds of hitting on your 5th shoot, (assuming no other factors change), is still only 20%. It's like tossing a coin, the chance of you tossing a head is 50/50, (50%, or 1 in 2), (yeah, ok I know is slightly less as there's always a slim chance of it landing on it's edge but bear with me). No matter how many time you toss the coin, if the parmeters stay the same then your chance for it coming up heads is still 50/50, and so on your 5th go it will still be 50/50. However the beauty of stats is how you look at them, so if you have already tossed the coin 4 times and it has come up 'tails' each time, the odds of your tossing a head is greatly imporves as the odds of you tossing a tail the 5th time iare against you. So in CM, if you plays the odds, rather than the simple straight 'chance to hit' percentage, the chance of you hitting on your 5th shot are improved as the odds of you missing with all 5 shots start stacking up. All comes down to are you a stat man or gambler. RE: Whoosh.. - Mike Abberton - 10-18-2007 Actually, I think what they were trying to determine is: if the chance for a hit on any specific attempt is 20%, what are the odds of getting at least one hit in three tries, which should be greater than 20%. Definitely not 60%, though. RE: Whoosh.. - PoorOldSpike - 10-18-2007 Kelen Wrote:...However the beauty of stats is how you look at them... Yeah it's a fascinating subject, as if there are mystical laws of the universe governing the chances. For example if there's a burglar in your pitch-black cellar, the chances of hitting him with one shot from your gun are very low as you fire it at a random spot in the darkness. But if you fire all 6 shots in rapid succession at different spots, all those low chances add up into one big chance and you'll quite possibly hit him. That's how I look at PIATS/Bazooks/schrecks, you can fire 6 times at low odds but they all sort of 'add up' and there's a good chance that one shot will hit, although there's no guarantee..) Waddya say Mr Bond? "Right, you've had your six" ![[Image: bond1.jpg]](http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g64/PoorOldSpike/bond1.jpg)
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