Dog Fight - Ostkreig Tournament Round 1

[von Nev]

Before I go to turn 6 I wanted to comment on what Dog Soldier said about knowing the status of the Russian fixed units. Honestly, I did not look at all at the setup of the Russian army prior to playing Dog Soldier. So, I really had no clue as to Russian setup or status or what was fixed and when. For all I knew they were not fixed. This is just a decision of mine when I play PBEM. I like really not knowing what I am up against. It seems more "real" to me. To compensate for this lack of knowledge about the enemy, I really use a lot of recon spotting and recon units. In fact, I try to always have recon spotting on as an option.

Back to the AAR . . . :stir:

The 10th PzD is plowing its way forward through the suburbs east of Mogilev. They destoyed the two arty batteries in the city and took the 100 VP hex. In the assaults on the arty batteries upwards of 60 guns were eliminated. The less Russian guns the better! The 10th PzD also pinned two battalions up against the Dnepr river to the east of the city. I was initially worried that they could retreat to a bridge but there was none. German engineers are busy clearing the rest of the minefields north of Mogilev. I am continuing to do this because often I forget exactly where they are and sometimes have reinforcements drive into them unknowingly. I was not able to advance to the railroad bridge this turn. As a result, the Russians may be able to withdraw a couple of units from the encirclement this turn. Dog did a good job holding a path open to the bridge. Also, as Dog pointed out, my tanks are starting to gain fatigue too rapidly. I will start to look for opportunities the next couple of turns to rest them. But now is not that time . . . they have a bridge to capture!

Down south the 10th Motorized has surged forward and taken most of the marsh areas and highground east of the crossing point. This is good and bad. The good news is that I now have the whole 10th Motorized over the river, but the bad news is that I concentrated on the wrong hex. I failed to disrupt the Russian battalion highlighted in the picture. As a result, the Russians have maintained a path to freedom through the town. If this unit was disrupted I could have easily assaulted it and pocketed a vast majority of the 172nd division. This was a lost opportunity that I will pay for the next few turns. I did not noticed this oversight until the end of the turn. On the west side of the Dnepr I moved one of my blocking units south to isolate a Russian unit next turn. I am still keeping units here to make sure the Russians do not escape westward.

On the map the red circles are assaults and the pink lines are where I called in artillery. No Stukas were available this turn.

[Dog Soldier]

Russian turn 7.
18:00 PM July 9, 1941
Dusk
Visibility 1km.


Victory points after the Russian turn seven.



The 10th MD attack is slowed to give me time to reinforce the city hex defenders. Most of my units are now released with a few key exceptions; the 38th Tank Division and the Army artillery on the main road north of the city. These large artillery pieces will take two moves to limber and get out of the way of the troops trying to come south. They make effective road blocks for the large Russian infantry formations trying to march quickly down the main road. The 3rd battalion of the 38th tank creates another road block by remaining fixed next to the railroad bridge southeast of the city. This effectively prevented my Russian units east of the city from escaping across the river on that bridge. (Road movement stacking limits.) They will have try for the highway bridge to the west. I do not want to leave them in the open terrain north of the railroad bridge. The Axis might reach those hexes next turn and if disrupted, the retreating Russian infantry will be stuck in transport ("T") mode on the south side of the bridge. There, they will most likely be shot up becoming a liability the rest of the game.
Units from the 187th division are moving up from the south. They will try to shore up the southern flank and extend the Axis lines as they drive east. I inadvertently targeted the wrong hex on a drag and drop move causing the recon battalion from the 187th from exiting the city properly. They came in contact with the Germans in the outskirts who disrupted them in transport mode with heavy casualties. Rats! One has to be careful and lead a unit one hex at a time when the space is narrow.
I concentrated my return fire this turn on only two Axis units trying to fatigue them enough to make them less useful next turn. With the QFM optional rule, this may not work. As a general rule when facing enemy units of higher quality, concentrating your fire on a few key units is better than trying to hit everyone.
Even facing horrendous losses in the 172nd rifle division as they try to exit the city, I hope any units sacrificed during the night achieve two objectives.

• Prevent the link up of 10th pz and 10th mot.
• Prevent 10th pz from laying a bridge during the night east of Mogilev.

If I can accomplish those two things by dawn, I think my chances to win will improve a lot in this battle. The Axis has 195 VP at this point, 100 VP coming from a VP hex. I am pleased with the loss ratios so far. I will lose a lot of troops during the night due to being surrounded. The loss of rest for the Axis troops and preventing an Axis link up will be worth it. The second day of fighting will tell the tale.

Retrospective.
von Nev is performing the text book example of a pincer attack on the Russian 172nd RD in Mogilev. This is what it looks like to be caught between two powerful Axis divisions. Russian players of S41 have to accept that this will happen to many of their units. There are always more Russian troops.

Dog Soldier

[von Nev]

German Turn 8.

At the end of this turn Phase I of the battle is drawing to a close. In the north the 10th Panzer Division has reached the bridging sites and as a result has pocketed a large portion of the 172nd Rifle Division.

Down south the 10th Motorized has cleared the Russians from the marshland to the south thereby securing their right flank. Fighting is still intense in the suburbs south of the river as the 10th Motorized tries to slam shut the door on the retreating Russians but as of the end of the turn are unsuccessful. Despite repeated tries, they could not disrupt the Russians that protected the key retreat route through the city. However, they were able to establish a foothold in the city.

For both divisions I am watching their fatigue. Since it is night I tried to rest what units I could but most units had to fight through the evening to reach their objectives. There will be little rest for both divisions as a whole.

As I look at where the Germans are after phase 1 overall I am pleased. The plan was executed as envisioned. The divisions quickly breached the minefields and crossed the Dnepr. Doing so they have crushed the 172nd division, reached the Dnepr river bridges as well as established a deep bridgehead for further operations. Casualties have been medium but around what I expected.

Phase 2, which will start the first AM turn the next day, will be as successful as phase 1.

Red circles are assaults. Purple are artillery barrages.

[Dog Soldier]

Russian turn 8.
20:00 PM July 9, 1941
Night
Visibility 1km.


Victory points after the Russian turn eight


The Axis forces begin mopping up the Russian units caught on the wrong side of the Dnepr River. The victory point total grows quickly. Still some Russian units hold out and even inflict a small amount of pain as a Russian infantry battalion disrupts and charges an unwary German bridge company causing much damage to the smaller Axis unit. The victory buys a little breathing space, but it will only delay their final destruction.
All the Russian artillery is trying to reposition before day break.

Reinforcements are rushing to get into position. The Russians will have to accept some fatigue for night movement It is the only way to take advantage of the good roads and move in columns without fear of Axis interdiction air strikes.

Dog Soldier

[von Nev]

Here is the German turn 9.

The 10th PzD reduced several of the pockets of Russians north of the Dnepr. Normally, since these Russians were surrounded with no chance of rescue, I would leave them to be eliminated in the morning and therefore allow more units to rest, but because of the threat of massive Russian artillery, I felt that eliminating them now was the better choice. I did try to rest some of the German armor that was at fatigure levels above 100 (some 150). I also moved some artillery forward to support the next phase of the attack.

Down south the 10th Motorized Division still was struggling to pocket the remaining Russian units south of the river. They did get into the city in force but I just could not disrupt the stack of Russians in the key hex protecting the withdraw route. To make matters worse, at the end of the turn I did not put a unit in the hex that would have greatly inhibited the retreat route. Russian units were escaping my clutches and unfortunately were going to live another turn. Ugh. I would have to deal with them again . . . :hissy:

Red circles are assaults.

[Dog Soldier]

Russian turn 9.
00:00 AM July 10, 1941
Night
Visibility 1km.


Victory points after the Russian turn nine.

Who thinks the Russians are a push over in S41? Raise your hands.
The Russians have to prevent any sizable force of Axis units from exiting the map on the exit VP hexes. If the Axis get to one and exit, the Russians are lost. So we will assume the Russian player will play to not allow any exiting by the Axis.
The Germans need 1,750 VP for a minor win and 2,150 for a major.
There are 900 objective VP, 650 in the south and 250 in the north.
1,750-650=1,100 1,100/25 = 44 net avg casualty VP per turn.
1,750-300=1,450 1,450/25 = 58 net avg casualty VP per turn.
The last southern objective after Mogilev falls is worth a 32% increase in the casualty VP rate or 25*14 = 350 net casualty VP extra the Germans need if they can be stopped before taking that objective.



Time to take stock of the first day's fighting. The Germans have 625 VP of which 350 are objectives. Another 300 VP in one objective is in the south. If von Nev "turns the corner" after crossing south of Mogilev and drives for the southern exit hex, this hex will become important or meaningless. Important is easy to see. It lies along the main road to the exit. Meaningless for the same reason. It can be out flanked if the Axis crosses the Dnepr in the great bend. Then they drive between the woods for the southern exit hex. Such a split of the Russians would be a disaster.
Anyone lose their tournament round one scenario that way?

Subtracting the 300 VP gives us 325 net casualty VP in favor of the Axis. A rate of 36 VP per turn. This is well below the rate required for a minor win as shown above. The tyranny of averages means, increasing this rate as turns progress will become increasingly difficult, if the Russians can prevent any more large encirclements. The Russians must contain the Germans this second day from a break through and use their artillery effectively to keep that net casualty VP rate low as they can. If the attrition is kept below the minor victory levels by the end of the second day, mutual exhaustion will occur and the Germans may stall.
In summary, the Russian must be aware of the net casualty VP rate per turn to decide when to preserve his forces for the third day and give more ground. Hard to do with the panzers snapping at you every turn and those large Axis infantry units direct firing your units into shreds.
Not impossible!



Back at the front....
The Axis mop up the Russian units surrounded east of the river. Only one pocket remains.

The defenders of the remaining Mogilev hexes south of the city back out towards new positions. There is dead open ground southeast of the main highway bridge exiting Mogilev. While I wanted to prevent a linkup before dawn of the two axis divisions, that is not possible. I choose to save the troops and get them to good cover before the dawn Axis push. One unit, too weak to keep up, stays behind. While they will be eliminated anyway in the open ground, I do not want them to allow cheap Axis assaults to push the unit between my main stacks. The poor fellows might fool the Axis into thinking there is artillery trained on them, causing the Axis infantry to have to fight all night for a small unit.

Russian reinforcements stream to the battle area. Artillery takes up new positions for the next game day. So far, no sign of Axis bridge building in the Dnepr River bend east of Mogilev. This is the best sign of all.

Dog Soldier

[von Nev]

Russian turn 10.

Morning of July 10, 1941.

The 10th PzD Division quickly dispatches the remaining pocketed units north of the river. They advance several units south of the river over the heavy bridge in town. Additionally, a recon unit assaults across the heavy railroad bridge and establishes a foothold on the south side of the river in the Russian flank. Most of the 10th PzD however is resting this turn. I am getting concerned at the overall fatigue of both divisions, but the 10th PzD fatigue is especially concerning.

The 10th Motorized Division finally captures the remaining suburbs of the city but only because a weak Russian unit stayed in the town. It was quickly overrun. Another Russian unit caught in the open steppes just east of the marsh was also eliminated.

Since it is now morning I received several recon flights. I put those to use by recon'ing the hard roads into Mogilev from the north and the east. Fortunately as well as unfortuately (depending how you look at it) they uncover additionally Russian units most likely moving towards the front line. This is not unexpected, but not a welcomed development. Hopefully they are brigades in strength not full divisions. Overall, advancing towards the exit hexes just got a lot more complicated as well as difficult. I dispatch a Stuka strike on one battalion in travel mode and inflict considerable casualties.

Red is assaults, yellow are German advances. Green is the Stuka strike.

[Dog Soldier]

Russian turn 10.
04:00 AM July 10, 1941
Dawn
Visibility 1km.


Victory points after the Russian turn ten.



If I’m lucky, the 10th panzer division is only resting and waiting for full daylight next turn to resume the attack behind 10th motorized. This would put all of von Nev’s marbles in one basket, making it easier for me to contain him.
The Germans have so many options at this point for 10th panzer. The weakness of the right flank of 10th Mot suggests:
a. 10th panzer will cross the river through the bridge on the south side of Mogilev and attack south behind the 10th mot which will push east. (blue arrow)
b. Or 10th pz will exit Mogilev to the west and move south on the west side of the Dnepr to cross behind the Russian lines and roll up my left flank. (red arrow)
c. Or 10th pz will exit Mogilev to the north and cross the Dnepr to drive toward one of the two northern exits. A northern move by 10th pz could also be made to cross where the marshes end (just north of this turn’s picture above) and drive south to cut off the retreat of any Russian formations still south of the city. That is a move I could more easily counter than a crossing farther north.

The Germans have some where around eight units left that can build bridges. This means they could create crossings every 5-6 hexes down the length of the entire river in the scenario. There are only 53 hexes in this scenario from north to south. There are nine total Axis units in the scenario capable of bridge building. von Nev has used one south of Mogilev, so he has eight left. Such bridges could be used as end game moves for the more mobile Germans forces if the Russians try to fight too far west. They could be used to set up fake attacks to draw the slower Russians to the north or south.
All will depend on where 10th pz moves in the next two turns. The longer the 10th pz remains hidden the more acute my problem of where to meet them will become.
I am now really feeling the loss of the recon bn’s inside Mogilev. The attempt to create an escape route for the city’s defenders failed.
With full day light coming next turn I might be able to determine where the 10th pz will be sent.
Considering these options, I have begun to position my southern most units for a run to the north where I will re-align all my remaining units in a hedge hog to protect the remaining VP hexes and the three exit hexes. Units of the 148th Rifle Division have slowed their advance to possibly have to shift south east to cover the rear of 187th Rifle Division’s move east.
Things look very black for the much slower Russian formations to win this race.

Dog Soldier

[von Nev]

German Turn 11.

Both the 10th PzD and the 10th Motorized are now joined and are battering their way forward along the main road out of Mogilev to the northeast. Additionally, a pretty tough Kampfgruppe of both divisions is also attacking to the southeast along the other main road out of Mogilev. Hopefully by attacking in these two directions I can at least pull some of the units that are blocking the main attack.

Also, I noticed that the Russians are withdrawing their left flank that is to the south of the city. Since I am not attacking in that direction, I expect they are trying to shorten their lines. Since there are no objectives down south as well as no exit hexes it would be a wasted effort to spend turns and pull units away from an attack to the east. Going south, then east, then northeast will dramatically reduce the power of the units attacking along the two main axis of attacks and take a tremendous amount of time. We are already nearly 1/2 way through the battle and my only shot at winning by achieving an exit hex.

The other thing that having two axis of attacks that are relatively close to eachother is that I can cycle units into and out of the battle to rest. As you can see from the picture, the armor of the 10th PzD are quite fatigued at this point and I am resting them for hopefully the final push after the infantry fight the Russians through the forest to the east of Mogilev. This area is not good tank country however the areas to the east of the forest open up considerably.

Red circles are assaults. Yellow arrows are German movement.

[Dog Soldier]

Russian turn 11.
06:00 AM July 10, 1941
Normal
Visibility 3km.

Victory points after the Russian turn eleven


I’m in luck! The majority of 10th pz was spotted during the German turn. The division is taking option A as described in the last turn. The hexes with “?” are 10thpz stacks. Another turn or two will tell the tale, but it appears for now the Germans are not going to use their mobility. Instead von Nev has opted for a frontal assault. 10th panzer has positioned itself to move against either of the main roads leading south to break my left flank. I am preparing for this by moving strong forces from the 187th Rifle division east to both block a move on the inside highway while being positioned to run if things get worse.
The 148th Rifle will be deploying along a line roughly diagonal from the bend in the Dnepr River east of Mogilev to the eastern board edge. I will then swing my left flank like a door back to try and break contact. This will lower the Axis ability to deliver crushing blows if the 10th pz and SS regt (due to arrive in four turns to the front) combine against my left. I will lose some units this way, but if I can control the choke points in the terrain, this maneuver will eat up four – six turns and leave the Germans with little time to make for the southern exit. This maneuver will prevent a crossing of the Dnepr south of the city from catching the 187th in the rear. As my artillery comes on line over the next two turns, I should be able to use it to punish the point of any German attack while trading space for infantry losses.
The 53rd rifle is deploying along choke points in the north, just in case the SS are sent there to try for a quick exit to the east. In any case this division can serve as a strategic reserve for the final stand if the SS are committed south of Mogilev.
Axis losses for the turn were 162 to 201 Russian for infantry. This advantageous to the Russians whose troops are worth less VP per man. Total VP went down by two. Basically a break even turn.