Serbia shall live! Serbia '14 4th Invasion AAR - Central Powers conceded turn 150

[ComradeP]

Day 5, 06:00 October 11th 1915. Soft conditions. Turn 32.



The Drina II Division position is breached and the division starts to move towards Beograd. The Danube II division is moving into position a few dozen hexes beyond the south-western corner of the screenshot.

In Beograd, the Germans have captured an objective but can't breach the secondary bunker line. The A-H forces in the city are still taking stiff losses from my units in BUNKER hexes on the ridges surrounding the city.



The reinforcements from the Danube I Division allow the Branicevo Detachment to retreat in an orderly manner. German pressure on the main body of the Danube I Division is still limited.

The second isolated border guard company will soon bite the dust.

[ComradeP]

Day 6, 06:00 October 12th 1915. Mud and Storm conditions. Turn 40.

The Kosava storm hits the battlefield. It will last at least 3 days.

Central Powers supply from supply sources decreases by 20 points.

Any unit on either side not on or near a primary road or supply source faces 1 local supply.



With the remaining objectives around Beograd held until they expired aside from the one held by XXII Reservekorps, units withdraw to secondary or tertiary BUNKER positions. Contrary to other parts of the front, fortifications in the Beograd area are well-placed and built in echelons.

All torpedo boats have been sunk by artillery, field guns and river boats, but they took another A-H river boat with them.



The Danube I Division withdraws to secondary BUNKER positions west and south of Semendria and pulls its right flank back a bit.

The Drina I Division has been kicked out of another BUNKER position, but there's another directly behind it.

The Branicevo Detachment has withdrawn quite a bit to put some space between them and the Germans, knowing the storm would hit and reduce movement to 1 hex per turn for nearly all units. Some of the Danube I Division units that supported the withdrawal of the Branicevo Detachment move back to the main body of the formation.

Also worth noting: 1st and 3rd Army HQ's were moved to hexes on a railroad, to facilitate redeployment if needed.

[Mr Grumpy]

You are now a whole day ahead of us, great AAR enjoying another persons perspective on the scenario!


Unfortunately it is difficult for me to comment too much on my game without giving my opponents very useful intel, also as my time is limited I will only comment on the Serb movements in the 3rd Army as that is the area that I am responsible for.

Generally your movements have been along similar lines to mine, you have been unlucky to lose two bunkers but that is the luck of the dice roll, like myself you immediately appreciated that the Semendria Island was a death trap for the Serb units stationed there and like myself you abandoned the island straight away (took some heavy hits on my units still), I also manged to dismantle the pontoon bridge and so saved the bridging engineer! In our first game (which had to be re-started when Ed made some changes) I managed to hold the Semendria objective until it expired and hopefully I can do the same again.

In the Danube I area I think it is obvious that the division will have to rely on holding the Mlava river to prevent the objective at Pozarevac from falling until it expires, did you consider damaging the bridges along the river? I know there are fords but with the Germans having no bridging engineers initially their destruction will limit the crossing places and make the river line easier to defend, also with the "medium" bridges destroyed the Germans will have to waste an bridging engineer if his guns wish to use the roads rather than the fords, small delays like can be important some times.

In the Branicevo area all you can do is delay as in your game, I personally prefer to save the Frontier Guard units as they can act way out on flanks and not be out of command which makes them very useful until they are withdrawn in a weeks time.

Any plans for the Chetniks that start at Arandjelovac? I can't really discuss our plans for the Timok II and Sumadija I divisions, but it will be interesting to see how they impact on your game.

[ComradeP]

It's not always clear how objectives were captured at a certain time, the objectives on the Danube I Division and Drina I Division front are difficult to secure for the Central Powers unless they get excellent Disruption rolls against the defenders in the bunkers.

The Semendria objective is a "maybe" if the Central Powers player is aware of the gap between the Danube I and Frontier Guard companies, but it's still difficult to capture. My opponent made no push towards the objective, preferring to breakthrough towards the south between the Danube I Division and Drina I Division. I think that's a better move.

I'm not really sure how Pozarevac can realistically be captured before it expires. The Drina I Division quality is good to great, there's a solid bunker line and rivers at the flank.

Similarly, the timetables for capturing the secondary and tertiary line Beograd objectives are also a bit optimistic I'd say, whereas the timetable for capturing Kalemegdan fortress and Konak Palace is very generous.

I try to save as many units as I can as well, but the withdrawal of the border guard companies makes it less of an issue to sacrifice them if you have to make a choice between them or a permanently present unit.

The second border guard unit I lost east of the Drina I Division was also Fixed until the Germans isolated it, as it couldn't spot anyone due to the low visibility and the surrounding visibility-blocking terrain.

Aside from the British Royal Marine detachment which heroically assaulted a bunker and was wiped out immediately, the torpedo boats in Beograd, the naval guns in Kalemegdan fortress and (soon) 3 border guard companies, I haven't lost any units yet. That was a bit of a surprise, some of my field gun units were exposed in T-mode for at least 1 turn but survived. Though I've lost 43 guns thus far, I'm only 10 guns short compared to the starting strength (or 3 field guns, as 7 losses were the naval guns in Beograd) as several units start understrength in Macedonia in particular and even at 1% recovery, given enough time units will regain strength.

I dislike leaving field gun units at the front, preferring to keep them 2 hexes away from the enemy. That's why the visibility of 1 hex complicated operations for a few days.

The only infrastructure damage I'll cause is cutting the rail line to Nis so Bulgarian reinforcements can't drive straight into Serbia from Sofia. I asked Volcano Man about Serbian infrastructure damage in the Serbia '14 thread and it seems to have been uncommon for Serbian troops to damage bridges, so I'll leave the bridges intact.

The Rudnik Chetniks from Arandjelovac were split between Beograd and the 3rd Army sector. Incidentally, the Chetniks are useful for holding bunkers together with a battalion, unintended as that might be.

As losses scale with stack size, it's advisable to keep a battalion and MG's, cavalry or some other small unit in a bunker hex instead of multiple battalions (I tried that a few times and Central Powers artillery hurt the stacks in a way that wasn't going to work for prolonged periods). The main advantage of Chetniks is that they're B and can move without having to switch to T-mode like field guns or MG's.

What are the losses like in your team game? My opponent sometimes keeps two battalions in one hex if he feels an assault is possible when my defenders Disrupts, but I've yet to see him make big mistakes in terms of unit placement. He did just lose a regiment of 107. Infanterie Division that was stuck on the other side of the Mlava due to the storm, but that was more an unfortunate move that couldn't be corrected due to the weather than a mistake.

[ComradeP]

Day 7, 06:00 October 13th 1915. Mud and Storm conditions. Turn 48.

Screenshots taken at the start of the 06:00 turn.



Not much to report in the greater Beograd area. The Drina II Division is moving east, the Danube II Division is moving into the secondary bunker positions on the surrounding ridges.



The Drina I Division is preparing to withdraw south, not much else is happening.

[ComradeP]

Day 8, 06:00 October 14th 1915. Mud and Storm conditions. Turn 56.



A border guard company is Isolated (couldn't withdraw earlier due to being Fixed and no convenient retreat path being available). No German units have been spotted in the area yet, all the units you see are A-H Landsturm units.

In Beograd, the BUNKER hex in the center with the blue partisan counter on top and the two yellow on grey and single green on grey counter north of it was captured by my opponent during the night, but immediately recaptured. I moved the Chetniks in and was lucky they didn't Disrupt. Night move disruption chance is 70%, but 35% for B quality units (all Chetniks) and 17.5% for A quality units.



It turns out that there were 3 battalions of 107. Infanterie Division on "my" side of the Mlava (the stack with purple on grey counters) since October 11th. They were ferried across the river just before the storm hit, but couldn't move back as ferrying is impossible during stormy weather. With no retreat path, the stack is doomed.

[Mr Grumpy]

It's not always clear how objectives were captured at a certain time, the objectives on the Danube I Division and Drina I Division front are difficult to secure for the Central Powers unless they get excellent Disruption rolls against the defenders in the bunkers.

The Semendria objective is a "maybe" if the Central Powers player is aware of the gap between the Danube I and Frontier Guard companies, but it's still difficult to capture. My opponent made no push towards the objective, preferring to breakthrough towards the south between the Danube I Division and Drina I Division. I think that's a better move.

I'm not really sure how Pozarevac can realistically be captured before it expires. The Drina I Division quality is good to great, there's a solid bunker line and rivers at the flank.

Similarly, the timetables for capturing the secondary and tertiary line Beograd objectives are also a bit optimistic I'd say, whereas the timetable for capturing Kalemegdan fortress and Konak Palace is very generous.

I try to save as many units as I can as well, but the withdrawal of the border guard companies makes it less of an issue to sacrifice them if you have to make a choice between them or a permanently present unit.

The second border guard unit I lost east of the Drina I Division was also Fixed until the Germans isolated it, as it couldn't spot anyone due to the low visibility and the surrounding visibility-blocking terrain.

Aside from the British Royal Marine detachment which heroically assaulted a bunker and was wiped out immediately, the torpedo boats in Beograd, the naval guns in Kalemegdan fortress and (soon) 3 border guard companies, I haven't lost any units yet. That was a bit of a surprise, some of my field gun units were exposed in T-mode for at least 1 turn but survived. Though I've lost 43 guns thus far, I'm only 10 guns short compared to the starting strength (or 3 field guns, as 7 losses were the naval guns in Beograd) as several units start understrength in Macedonia in particular and even at 1% recovery, given enough time units will regain strength.

I dislike leaving field gun units at the front, preferring to keep them 2 hexes away from the enemy. That's why the visibility of 1 hex complicated operations for a few days.

The only infrastructure damage I'll cause is cutting the rail line to Nis so Bulgarian reinforcements can't drive straight into Serbia from Sofia. I asked Volcano Man about Serbian infrastructure damage in the Serbia '14 thread and it seems to have been uncommon for Serbian troops to damage bridges, so I'll leave the bridges intact.

The Rudnik Chetniks from Arandjelovac were split between Beograd and the 3rd Army sector. Incidentally, the Chetniks are useful for holding bunkers together with a battalion, unintended as that might be.

As losses scale with stack size, it's advisable to keep a battalion and MG's, cavalry or some other small unit in a bunker hex instead of multiple battalions (I tried that a few times and Central Powers artillery hurt the stacks in a way that wasn't going to work for prolonged periods). The main advantage of Chetniks is that they're B and can move without having to switch to T-mode like field guns or MG's.

What are the losses like in your team game? My opponent sometimes keeps two battalions in one hex if he feels an assault is possible when my defenders Disrups, but I've yet to see him make big mistakes in terms of unit placement. He did just lose a regiment of 107. Infanterie Division that was stuck on the other side of the Mlava due to the storm, but that was more an unfortunate move that couldn't be corrected due to the weather than a mistake.

As far as I am aware the turns all the objectives expire are the actual historical dates the CP side took those locations, as far as Beograd is concerned I know that Ed played that scenario out many times to check that capturing them was achievable, it will be interesting to see which objectives are/are not taken in time, I am sure if you make a note he would be interested to learn how it went in your game?

As far as Pozarevac is concerned I have a concern that a clever CP player will cross the river higher up and outflank the bunker line, this also has the added bonus that it threatens the Danube I LOC and so cannot be ignored, there is no way the Branicevo can resist a push south down the river line to prevent this IMO. I know hindsight makes everyone a military genius but even without the storm trapping the 107 ID units on the river bank I think your opponent made a misjudgement trying a river crossing that far north as it just plays into the Serbian defenders hands where the river defences are strongest and looking at you image I can't see that you have any forces watching the river further south so as the CP player that would be my prefered move.
Anyway that is in the future in our game, lets see where my CP opponent try's to cross the Mlawa river?

I will ask Ed about destroying bridges, normally if a designer does not want this to happen employs the "wired bridges" feature so he has control over which bridges can be destroyed (or none at all), if this feature is not enabled then I will damage as many bridges as I can as this can seriously delay your opponents advance rate.

Losses in our game have been quite heavy in the Beograd area as the AH side has somewhat struggled to make progress, other than that losses have been "normal" as most players are experienced with the FWWC system and rarely overstack a hex.

Look forward to your next set of images, obviously the storm and mud will slow the game in the short term.

[ComradeP]

Bunker busting is always going to depend at least partially on Disruption (and subsequent recovery) rolls, so capturing Beograd objectives might very well be possible. It does look challenging, and my opponent struggled to gain ground.

I know the objectives are timed to when they were historically captured, but that may or may not work in the game. Combat is deadlier than it was in real life and units rapidly lose strength. Battalions regularly lose 100 or more men in a single turn when facing strong defensive positions. That makes situations like the slow Bulgarian attack towards Nis difficult to replicate. In game terms, it's incredible the Bulgarians didn't capture Nis until November. On the other hand, the historical advance into Macedonia looks like it will be difficult to replicate for the Bulgarians if the Serbians send even minor reinforcements to the area.

I agree that in the 3rd Army sector, a push between the Drina I Division and the Branicevo Detachment could work, but there are numerous obstacle hexes around and units coming in from the north-west would need to cross two rivers unless they can secure the two northernmost Drina I Division bunkers in order to use the bridge.

Also keep in mind that the good supply the Central Powers currently have in the area is due to a bug (or issue in any case) with supply being traced normally across damaged ferry hexes. Supply would otherwise be minimal, coming from the 5 to 15 point supply sources on the Serbian side of the Danube.

Having said that, it is certainly possible to outflank Serbian positions and it looks like in the upcoming days my opponent will do just that.

[ComradeP]

Day 9, 06:00 October 15th 1915. Mud conditions. Turn 64.

Surprisingly, the weather improved even though there's a 60% Storm chance. It turned out we would only get one more day of stormy weather, on the 17th with only a 15% Storm chance. Typical.



The Storm lessening to better conditions means the bulk of the Drina II Division can move into position on the western flank of the Belgrade sector before the day is over.

The only objective here is...holding the only remaining objective in the screenshot until the end of turn 80. Ideally without losing any non-border guard units.



The situation in this sector is a bit chaotic, as I'm trying to parry any penetration attempts whilst not having enough units to hold a line. You'll see me shift additional units from the Danube I Division east.

The Drina I Division will be pulling back for a while, the same goes for the Branicevo Detachment.

In all northern sectors, a major complicating factor is that my border guard (frontier guard) companies will be withdrawn in two days. Not only will that remove eyes on the enemy, but it will also mean I'll have to hold all defensive positions with regular army units.

[ComradeP]

Day 10, 06:00 October 16th 1915. Mud conditions. Turn 72.



The Morava II Division is moving forwards, deploying in a wide screen. The Danube II Division will start moving east, with the Morava II Division taking over some defensive positions.

The Morava II Division will then withdraw south, the Danube II Division will withdraw south-east.

Elements of the Beograd Defence Detachment move south-east towards the Danube I Division positions.



The Drina I Division has made a leap to the south and has broken all contact with the enemy. My opponent is attempting to flank my positions using the road running south along the river east of the Drina I Division and the detached units of the Danube I Division.