Bridge Building tricks

[Glenn Saunders]

So the bridge may be completed after 2 hours of work, but even after ten-twenty hours of contruction, the probability remains the same 30%.

This is one of those arguements that sounds ok on the surface but I understand does not hold up statistically. Now I don't know much about statistics, but this is what I get from John Tiller

where p=probability

Using p = 50%, 50% of arrivals will be in 1 turns, 90% will be in = 3
Using p = 30%, 50% of arrivals will be in 1 turns, 90% will be in = 6
Using p = 10%, 50% of arrivals will be in 6 turns, 90% will be in = 21

...so with 30% over six turn there is 90% chance of the event occurring. So the numbers can tell you the story however you want it too.

Glenn