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RE: Bridge Building tricks
"This is one of those arguements that sounds ok on the surface but I understand does not hold up statistically. Now I don't know much about statistics, but this is what I get from John Tiller
where p=probability
Using p = 50%, 50% of arrivals will be in 1 turns, 90% will be in = 3
Using p = 30%, 50% of arrivals will be in 1 turns, 90% will be in = 6
Using p = 10%, 50% of arrivals will be in 6 turns, 90% will be in = 21
...so with 30% over six turn there is 90% chance of the event occurring. So the numbers can tell you the story however you want it too."
This isn't quite true Glen, which in terms of math means it isn't true at all. 30% of arrivals will be in one turn if the odds are 30%, and in every turn thereafter, the odds remain 30%. von Egan :rolleyes::smoke:
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