Whoosh..

[Kelen]

Personally I'll always take the shot with a piat/baz/schreck if the hit percent is at least around 20%, because if it manages to squeeze off just 3 shots it'll have a better than 50-50 chance of hitting according to my primitive grasp of maths (3x 20% = 60% hit chance)

Actually it's not correct, since 5x20% would yield 100% etc.
You have to calculate the chance of a miss (4/5) and raise this to the third power: (4/5)^3 = 64/125 = 51.2% of 3 consecutive miss => 48.8% chance for a hit.

Actually that's not correct either. the odds of hitting on your 5th shoot, (assuming no other factors change), is still only 20%.

It's like tossing a coin, the chance of you tossing a head is 50/50, (50%, or 1 in 2), (yeah, ok I know is slightly less as there's always a slim chance of it landing on it's edge but bear with me). No matter how many time you toss the coin, if the parmeters stay the same then your chance for it coming up heads is still 50/50, and so on your 5th go it will still be 50/50.

However the beauty of stats is how you look at them, so if you have already tossed the coin 4 times and it has come up 'tails' each time, the odds of your tossing a head is greatly imporves as the odds of you tossing a tail the 5th time iare against you. So in CM, if you plays the odds, rather than the simple straight 'chance to hit' percentage, the chance of you hitting on your 5th shot are improved as the odds of you missing with all 5 shots start stacking up.

All comes down to are you a stat man or gambler.