Who will be the next all time CM ladder champion?

[Der Kuenstler]

Just for fun I have taken the all time top 15 scorers on our CM ladder and analyzed them to see who will be the next all time ladder champion and get the coveted Pilus Prior award.

This is not hard to do using a little math. First we look at the current #1 leader, Walkure. We need to find out how many games he is currently finishing per month. I did that by using his last three months’ games reported and dividing by three. So based on that Walkure is now finishing 3.33 games per month.

Next we need his average points per game - this was done by dividing his total score by his total number of games and rounding it off. Walkure plays big games, scenarios, and ops and he wins most of them so his average per game is a whopping 51 points. (This is why he is the ladder leader, by the way. It’s the points that he is gaining that is critical, not the number of games he’s played.) 51 points per game X 3.33 games per month means Walkure is adding 170 ladder points per month to his score. Anybody who wants to eventually catch him must do better than that.

Now let’s look at the other ladder leaders using the same scoring formula:

#2 - Bootie - Bootie has played a ton of games and is adding 140 points a month to his score. However, he is losing ground to Walkure at this rate (-30 points a month) and so I’m afraid will never be ladder leader unless things change.

#3 - (FGM) Phil Davies - Phil is now adding 140 points a month to his score (net -30 points gain on Walkure) and thus will never be ladder leader again, although he already was before.

#4 - Red Devil - Red Devil already has the Pilus Prior award and usually wins but doesn’t play enough games - he only gains 68 points a month and won’t ever lead the ladder again at that rate.

#5 - Herroberst - Herroberst is my prediction to lead the overall ladder next. He adds 237 points a month to his score, meaning he is gaining on Walkure by +67 points a month, and I predict at the current rate he will pass Walkure and lead our ladder 2 years and three months from now, which would be in March of 2010.

#6 - (RT) Pioneer - is losing ground to Walkure (-107 points per month) so will never lead the ladder.

#7 - Kilroy - Losing ground (-159 points per month)

#8 - Andre - Has a 210 point per month average, so is gaining by 40 points per month. Unfortunately at this rate it will take him 246 months, or over 20 years, to catch Walkure.

#9 - Antoni Chmielowski - is losing ground (-44 points a month)

#10 - Blackjack - losing ground - hasn’t played at all in last three months

#11 - Zemke - losing ground - hasn’t played at all in last three months

#12 - Der Kuenstler - I am currently adding the most points to my score of anyone on the ladder per month, which is 355. This means I am gaining 185 points per month on Walkure. Unfortunately, I started playing on this ladder relatively late, and so at the current rate it will take me five years and four months to catch him.

#13 - Owl - Owl is gaining (+77 points per month) on Walkure, but it will take him 13 years to pass him at this rate.

#14 - Raz-atoth - Raz will never lead the ladder at this rate because he is losing (-20) points per month to Walkure.

#15 - Fridericus - losing ground -has finished only 2 games in the last three months.

Further down the ladder, in the past three months Lord Bane, Risnervich, and Bluehand are all gaining on Walkure, but only by 20 points or so. Lord Bane is gaining by 22 points a month and so will eventually catch Walkure - in 82 years.

And so, friends and countrymen, unless fate intervenes somehow, I predict the next all time ladder champion will be Herroberst in 2010!