Dog Fight - Ostkreig Tournament Round 1

[Dog Soldier]

Russian turn 9.
00:00 AM July 10, 1941
Night
Visibility 1km.


Victory points after the Russian turn nine.

Who thinks the Russians are a push over in S41? Raise your hands.
The Russians have to prevent any sizable force of Axis units from exiting the map on the exit VP hexes. If the Axis get to one and exit, the Russians are lost. So we will assume the Russian player will play to not allow any exiting by the Axis.
The Germans need 1,750 VP for a minor win and 2,150 for a major.
There are 900 objective VP, 650 in the south and 250 in the north.
1,750-650=1,100 1,100/25 = 44 net avg casualty VP per turn.
1,750-300=1,450 1,450/25 = 58 net avg casualty VP per turn.
The last southern objective after Mogilev falls is worth a 32% increase in the casualty VP rate or 25*14 = 350 net casualty VP extra the Germans need if they can be stopped before taking that objective.



Time to take stock of the first day's fighting. The Germans have 625 VP of which 350 are objectives. Another 300 VP in one objective is in the south. If von Nev "turns the corner" after crossing south of Mogilev and drives for the southern exit hex, this hex will become important or meaningless. Important is easy to see. It lies along the main road to the exit. Meaningless for the same reason. It can be out flanked if the Axis crosses the Dnepr in the great bend. Then they drive between the woods for the southern exit hex. Such a split of the Russians would be a disaster.
Anyone lose their tournament round one scenario that way?

Subtracting the 300 VP gives us 325 net casualty VP in favor of the Axis. A rate of 36 VP per turn. This is well below the rate required for a minor win as shown above. The tyranny of averages means, increasing this rate as turns progress will become increasingly difficult, if the Russians can prevent any more large encirclements. The Russians must contain the Germans this second day from a break through and use their artillery effectively to keep that net casualty VP rate low as they can. If the attrition is kept below the minor victory levels by the end of the second day, mutual exhaustion will occur and the Germans may stall.
In summary, the Russian must be aware of the net casualty VP rate per turn to decide when to preserve his forces for the third day and give more ground. Hard to do with the panzers snapping at you every turn and those large Axis infantry units direct firing your units into shreds.
Not impossible!



Back at the front....
The Axis mop up the Russian units surrounded east of the river. Only one pocket remains.

The defenders of the remaining Mogilev hexes south of the city back out towards new positions. There is dead open ground southeast of the main highway bridge exiting Mogilev. While I wanted to prevent a linkup before dawn of the two axis divisions, that is not possible. I choose to save the troops and get them to good cover before the dawn Axis push. One unit, too weak to keep up, stays behind. While they will be eliminated anyway in the open ground, I do not want them to allow cheap Axis assaults to push the unit between my main stacks. The poor fellows might fool the Axis into thinking there is artillery trained on them, causing the Axis infantry to have to fight all night for a small unit.

Russian reinforcements stream to the battle area. Artillery takes up new positions for the next game day. So far, no sign of Axis bridge building in the Dnepr River bend east of Mogilev. This is the best sign of all.

Dog Soldier