Napoleon wins at Waterloo, then what?

[D-Day_Dodger]

Historians of all stripes seem to think that after Napoleon won at Waterloo, the campaign was over. However, the more I think about this the more I have to question that line of reasoning.

Let's assume that after a hard fight, Napoleon's Imperial Guard fights it's way through the British line and opens the road to Brussels. This might win the battle, but does it win the war?

Reports of a French victory at Waterloo would have certainly caused panic and a corresponding weakening of the Allied cause and an increase in French national morale. But in the short term tactical outlook, it appears to me that by advancing on Brussels with the rest of his badly mauled army Napoleon would only have been sticking his head further into the noose. Indeed it is doubtful whether Napoleon could have moved on Brussels at all. Night had fallen and his army was tired, hungry and in a shambles. Ordering an advance on brussels would have been well nigh impossible.

Napoleon already had/ a long and tenuous supply line that after the battle would have been threatened by the Prussians on one side and the Anglo-Allied on the other. Taking a look at the numbers alone gives an idea of how precarious Napoleon's situation was. Before Waterloo, Napoleon's Army numbered 77,000 (excluding Grouchy's 30,000), the Prussians 100,00 (of which 53,000 were actually engaged at Waterloo) and the Anglo-Allied army 72,000 (excluding 17,000 men at Hal). Napoleon suffered 25,000 casualties, Blucher 7,000 and Wellington 15,000.

Napoleon is then out numbered three to one with little hope of being re-inforced or relieved by Grouchy. His Prussian opponents out number him two to one, are relatively fresh and most importantly are led by a fighter in Blucher who has a free hand in his handling of the Prussian army.

The Anglo-Allied army was in worse shape and would probably have suffered many desertions and defections among the Dutch and Belgians in the event of a French victory. However, the British contingent made up of tough Peninsular War veterans would soon have rallied around Wellington after their defeat. Wellington also had 17,000 fresh British troops within easy marching distance to the west at Hal. Wellington is also a fighter but he did not have Blucher's free hand, as he was under the direction of the British government. I don't know what instructions Wellington had from the government in the event of an English defeat, but assuming he did stick around to fight, Napoleon would been in a real pickle.

Any one care to comment on this?