Napoleon wins at Waterloo, then what?

[D-Day_Dodger]

If Napoleon won at Waterloo he would have done so by breaking that "thin red line". Thus the core of the Anglo-Allied Army would have suffered much larger casualties in the British contingent as result of that line being broken and the eventual retreat / route? Conversely the French would not have suffered as many casualties and disruption to thier army that resulted from their historical rout.

Wellington and Blucher would have retired to fight another day.

Dog Soldier

Thanks guys for all the responses.

I pretty much agree that the Alliance would have remained firm enough to defeat Napoleon. Although David Williams in his Waterloo: New Perspectives makes a strong case for Napoleon's ability to put up a strong fighting withdrawl. Grouchy's corps was largely intact and handled well by Grouchy during his retreat. As Napoleon fell back on his LoC he would release garrison and depot troops to his army. Conversely, the Allies would have had to weaken their forces as they advanced into the French interior.

However, I mean't to focus the discussion on the immediate outcome of a victory by the Imperial Guard over Wellington's British veterans. I don't want to re-fight the battle, but just assume the Guard breaks the British line.

I believe that the Guard would have taken terrible casualties in the process, possibly more given that they were the assaulting troops. So, even if successful the Guard would have been in no condition to exploit their success. And because Napoleon had ordered a general advance of his army, including his remaining cavalry, he had no reserves to throw into any gap created by the Guard. Wellington, on the other hand, had the benefit of 5 cavlary brigades in reserve to limit the effects of any break through. In addition, the Imperial Guard attacked at 7:30 PM so little time would have been left to exploit any victory before night fell. And if the French were able to sort themselves out during the night, I see no reason why British veterans would not be able to rally during the night.

So I don't think there would have been a correspondingly disastrous rout among the British ranks as there was when the Guard recoiled. The fact is, the rout would probably still have occurred in the French ranks when they discovered that the Prussians had linked up with the Allies and were in their rear. Remember that Napoleon had told the troops before the general advance began that these troops belonged to Grouchy's Corps. So even a defeat of Wellington would still leave a fresh and numerically superior force under Blucher on Napoleon's other flank.

Win of lose at Waterloo, Napoleon would probably have made his last stand some where in Belgium. If either Wellington or Blucher thought that they could finish off Napoleon I doubt they would have withdrawn unless absolutely pressed to do so. Waterloo was Napoleon's worst campaign and he deserved his fate.