How do you improve PzB???

[Bayes]

Thanks for the very interesting discussion Dog Soldier and ComradeP!

Panzer Campaigns, and now Panzer Battles, are definitively my favorite games, and I must say that I am truly impressed by the mathematical elegance of the engine design, as well as the richness and details of the scenarios.

In order to cast some light on the discussion, I have made a small simulation using the in my opinion very well-documented game rules. The simulation is simplified and focuses on range effect (disruption and reaction fire was not implemented). In brief, I have conducted 10 000 battles between 10 PzKw IVg and 10 T34 76d, and calculated the average number of wins for various ranges and various first shooters (a win is here defined as total destruction of the enemy).

First shooter 10 T34 76d:

Range 1: PzKw IVg wins 56% of the time.
Range 2: PzKw IVg wins 66% of the time.
Range 3: PzKw IVg wins 68% of the time.
Range 4: PzKw IVg wins 69% of the time.
Range 5: PzKw IVg wins 70% of the time.
Range 6: PzKw IVg wins 71% of the time.

First shooter 10 PzKw IVg:

Range 1: PzKw IVg wins 96% of the time.
Range 2: PzKw IVg wins 92% of the time.
Range 3: PzKw IVg wins 87% of the time.
Range 4: PzKw IVg wins 84% of the time.
Range 5: PzKw IVg wins 82% of the time.
Range 6: PzKw IVg wins 81% of the time.

What I find astounding with the above results is that with a simple and elegant model of ranged fire, the game engine models that:

* In order to maximize success probability, the T34 should get as close as possible, and being the one that fires first (achieve surprise).
* The PzKw IVgs will get most stable result at long range, however, shooting first at short range is definitively best.

I think maybe these results also confirm the experiences Dog Soldier report.

Note that in the real game, the above stats would favor the PzKw IVg even more because the T34s would also disrupt, reducing effectiveness of their fire.

Back to gaming :-).

Bayes