First World War Campaigns - More insight into combat odds

[Mr Grumpy]

Here is the text from the manual, the text in bold does not apply in your example.

"To resolve the assault, the total assault value and the average defense value of the attacking units, as well as the total assault value and the average defense value of the defending units, are calculated with the modifiers mentioned applied to the assault values.

Total assault values are calculated using the individual assault values of each unit times its strength, with vehicle and gun units having their strength value multiplied by 10. Average defense values are calculated by taking a weighted average of the defense values of the individual units based on their relative strength.

Then two Combat Results are applied: one using the assault value of the attackers against the defense
value of the defenders, and the other using the assault value of the defenders against the defense value of the attackers. The Low and High Combat Values used for these Combat Results is determined by Parameter Data (see the Parameter Data Dialog in the Main Program)."

Assaulting successfully is something you just get a "feel" for, but obviously if you have good odds and your units have low fatigue and high assault ratings and your opponents units are disrupted, then you will almost certainly take the hex, the skill lies in the grey area when you might not have all these factors in your favour.