NGP85 "81: Better Dead than Red v1.1"

[JDR Dragoon]

092200Z May 1981

FROM CENTAG G2
TO COMCENTAG

RE: Recent developments in the intelligence picture further into East Germany.

In addition to tracking the whereabouts and activity of enemy units deployed immediately in front of the respective CENTAG corps, we have also attempted to track and verify the presence of HQs and units away from the immediate border areas in the hope of detecting major HQs and enemy reinforcements moving towards the front.

At 0600 emissions are detected from a Soviet and an East German HQ in the vicinity of Erfurt. Based on the strenght of the emissions, they are likely Army or Front level HQs, but since we are reasonably certain that the NVA are not supposed to form the basis of a Front, we must suppose that it is some kind of Army HQ.




Two hours later a HQ which might be that of a Soviet Army was detected moving towards Meiningen.




8 hours later, at 1600Z, the same picture repeats itself in the exact same area.




In the evening, both the suspected Soviet Front HQ and the suspected East German Army HQ are detected again near Erfurt.






The intelligence picture is thus reasonably clear: CENTAG is about to be attacked by a Soviet Front, whose HQ is in the vicinity of Arnstadt. This Front consists of four armies (2 Soviet, 1 Polish, 1 East German) with a likely total of 10-11 divisions in its first echelon, and a second echelon of at least 3 divisions to follow up this initial attack. The CENTAG corps most threatened is the US VII Corps, which will be hit by 2 WAPA armies with 5-6 divisions in their initial attack echelon. The stance and position of WAPA units mean, that they will now be able to initiate an attack with a warning time of only minutes.