NGP85 "81: Better Dead than Red v1.1"

[JDR Dragoon]

101400Z May 1981

FROM CENTAG G2
TO COMCENTAG

RE: Updated Intelligence Picture.

Since 0100 this morning, NATO forces have been involved in full-scale warfare against the Warsaw Pact. ABC weapons are still off the table, but might be used at any time.

CENTAG forces north of Bamberg (GE III Korps, US V Corps plus relevant parts of US VII Corps and Territorialkommando Süd) are currently under attack by a WAPA Front, comprising four (4) armies, two of which are Soviet, one Polish, and one East German.

The forces arrayed against the GE III Korps seems primarily to be the Polish 2. Army, with 2 Motorrifle Divisions (2. and 4. Mech.) plus two Tank Divisions (5. and 10. Tank). In this respect, the Army as deployed in wartime seems to closely mimic its peacetime structure. If this is the case, then we may presuppose, that a further Tank Division (11. TD) is in reserve, making this army five divisions strong in total. In addition to this, the army is likely to have extra engineer assets (like poonton equipment), antitank units and long-range/heavy artillery. In addition, the presence of attack helicopters is possible, although none have so far been spotted. The equipment of these units have mostly been older T55 tanks and OT-64 wheeled APCs, with some modern T72s and BMP infantry fighting vehicles as well. The artillery spotted in this sector has so far been upgraded older types as well. The sector of attack of the Polish 2. Army seems so far to closely follow the Corps boundary between the GE III Korps and US V Corps. If this observation holds, we may conclude that the GE III Korps is currently faced with the above threat. The enemy in this sector seems to advance on a broad front, with no obvious center of gravity.

Further to the south, the US V Corps is under attack by a Soviet army of unknown nomenclature. This army seems to be composed of 3 Motorrifle Divisions (20th GMRD, 39th GMRD, 57th GMRD) with a possible Tank Division waiting behind these units in order to exploit any gains. In addition, the same army level assets as for the Polish 2. Army are present here as well. This includes attack helicopters as well, and also additional battalions of rocket artillery, plus possibly a hitherto unidentified airmobile infantry formation. It now seems certain, that the Polish units detected near Eisenach were not a part of this army at all, but of the polish 2. Army. The center of gravity seems squarely aimed at the northern division of the US V Corps (3rd AD), with two GMRDs attacking here (20th, 57th), while the US 8th ID are only being tested by a single GMRD (39th). Since the identity of both this army, and its neighbor to the south attacking our VII Corps is unknown, we have so far been unable to elucidate the boundary between these two formations with certainty. For now we are assigning all Soviet units attacking the US V Corps to this Soviet army, with the ones attacking the US VII Corps being assigned to the other.

Using the above criteria as a guide, the US VII is under attack by a Soviet army of unknown designation. We estimate that there must be a second army attacking here, based on the number of Soviet divisions involved, combined with their spread out nature. This army seems to be composed of the 79th GTD, 27th GMRD, and the 6th GTD. Signals intelligence also indicates, that both an East German and an additional Soviet division are lurking in reserve behind these units, making the likely number of divisions here five. Supporting assets are likely to be the same as the ones supporting the Army attacking US V Corps. In addition, the East-German 3. Army is attacking the US VII Corps as well. This army seems to be composed of the East-German 4. Motorrifle and 7. Tank Division, with another division likely lurking in reserve north of Hof. Supporting assets for the East-German army seems to be almost the same as for the Polish one, although recent reports have now positively identified the presence of East-German attack helicopters. No centre of gravity has been identified for either of these armies, who seem content to push the US VII Corps steadily back.

We may thus conclude, that the GE III Korps is under attack by a Polish army of 4-5 divisions, with about half being Tank and the other half Motorrifle Divisions. Given its defensive positions behind river obstacles and the large amount of engineer works done, the two West-German divisions of this corps should be able to stop the enemy with their own resources. The US V Corps seems to be under attack by another army, tentatively estimated at 3-4 divisions, with 3 of these being Motorrifle Divisions. If this estimate is correct, the US V Corps should be able to stop the enemy with its own resources, even without the addition of any REFORGER units. The US VII Corps is under attack by a Soviet army, with 2 Tank and 1 Motorrifle Division, with 2 more divisions (1 East-German) waiting in reserve. In addition, an East-German army of 2-3 divisions, 1 Tank and 1-2 Motorrifle, is attacking here as well. The US VII Corps at its current composition (2 divisions plus two brigade equivalents) will be hard pressed to stop this attack on its own, and will require reinforcements of at least 3-4 brigades just to be sure of holding its assigned sector.