Why you might want to check out your opponent's ELO score!

[Kool Kat]

Gents:

I recently ended a Modern Campaigns game because I was getting the "stuffing" beat out of me!

My NATO opponent played a perfect game and was the higher skilled player. Every Warsaw Pact move was brilliantly countered by my opponent and I was kept off balance from Turn #1. A NATO armor counterattack on the Warsaw Pact left flank late in the battle sealed the victory. I gave up and surrendered with 4 turns left in our game.

As I was recording my Major Loss, I reviewed our ELO scores;

2157 - Opponent's ELO Score

1938 - My ELO Score

-------


219 Difference


Here's what Wikipedia states on the ELO Rating System:

"The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%."

Based on our ELO scores, I was at a 76% disadvantage... or stated another way... there was a 76% probability that I would lose the MC scenario against this opponent!   

I was definitely in this MC match!

The ELO score difference was "spot on" as a predictor of which player eventually won this match.

So... lesson learned here!  

In my future matches I will review my opponent's ELO scores more carefully and look to play opponents that are equal in ELO scores to mine (ideal) or at least play against opponents who's ELO scores are within 100 points of mine.  

For me, it's no fun to play vastly superior skilled opponents and subsequently getting beaten into a pulp!

Word to the wise gents... You "might" want to review how your ELO scores stack up against potential opponents ratings BEFORE you accept a game challenge!