Serbia shall live! Serbia '14 4th Invasion AAR - Central Powers conceded turn 150

[Elxaime]

As the Central Powers player in this scenario, I can now offer some comments from the other side.

First, many thanks for an enjoyable and challenging game. My esteemed opponent was very gentlemanly in pointing out various game mechanics and scenario features, e.g. such as the Montenegrin arrival.

As noted, the CP concession was triggered by the surprise encirclement of an entire Bulgarian division, which was doomed to complete destruction as relief was two days away. This was entirely due to catastrophic error. There was a perfectly good Bulgarian cavalry division set to screen the flank, but based on an assessment (mistaken as it turned out) that the French spotted earlier were likely not in great force, the cavalry was sent south to mask some of the Serb population centers. I had calculated this sector would remain quiet long enough for the additional Bulgarian reinforcements to arrive and enable the resumption of the offensive. Although the CP could have fought on past Turn 150, it seemed to me this stroke merited a concession, as the loss of an entire division would severely delay and weaken the Bulgarian southern advance.

Generally speaking, aside from the above disaster, elsewhere I was satisfied with the CP advance, with some exceptions:

1. The CP in the Beograd area stayed in close contact with the Serb bunker line during the storm turns, calculating they could keep the pressure on and perhaps get a lucky disruption. However this meant significant infantry losses which, although they could be replaced, gave a lot of victory points to the Allies. In retrospect, I would probably remain quiet during the Storm, resuming the bombardment and advance once the weather lifted.

2. Bad mistake moving a German regiment across a river in 11th Army sector just before the big storm hit. Won't do that again!

3. Early on I was too aggressive with the Bulgarians, leading to some nasty ambushes. The Bulgarians have a big numerical advantage, which you can best exploit if you are patient and outflank the foe.

On the bright side, I think I finally got a handle on the best way to advance against Chetnik units, which can disrupt CP guns and MG in T mode as they move up. I ended up keeping the MG and guns further back until my advance enabled me to patrol onto likely Chetnik units. Not foolproof, but I felt this was better than slogging forward with disrupted units, with the side benefit that the MG units could recover strength. In any case, once you are past the bunker lines, the Serbs generally won't stand and fight for more than 2-3 turns against the mass of the CP 3rd and 11th Armies - at least the game ended before a real confrontation resumed - after Beograd it was a slow muddy chase southwards.

On massing stacks of battalions, I usually tried to avoid over stacking, but felt that the benefit of raining hellish fire on Serbs I managed to exchange volleys with was worth the risk. This however may be debatable, as on occasion the mass would run into a Serb MG or artillery ambush. My opponent was excellent in his artillery placement, and in reality the CP probably is better off with low visibility, since that enables easier outflanking.

On lessons learned, it seems to me the key for the CP is patience. A close second is ensuring reconnaissance, not just to avoid disasters like the Bulgarian encirclement, but to find and exploit the weak spots in the Serb lines. The Serbs are stretched thin, and once you detect a front area held by the less formidable reservists, or less numerous forces, you can push those - this will enable the CP to lever the Serb tougher forces out of even strong positions.

One thing I felt I never solved was how to balance this patience with the need to maintain an advance that allows you to get the VP hexes before they disappear. If I was to suggest one possible change in the scenario, it would be to revisit the scheduled of timed VPs for PBEM, as I think they may have been arrived at versus AI, while a clever PBEM opponent will hold them longer. As a quality of life issue, it would also be great if there was an on-map tool-tip telling you when VP hexes disappear, as this would be convenient.

All in all, a great scenario with lots of potential player choices. I think this campaign can go either way. My opponent put up a very skilled defense and I felt like by the mid-game I had discovered some counters. But it was outweighed by the Bulgarian disaster!