Command tests: Base chance = global or local supply?

[Ricky B]

I believe that is correct, although I didn't look at the manual to see. If the parent HQ is only in command 40% of the time, then #2 won't apply too often.

FYI, I would say bad luck, or you are focused on the bad results you see and forget the better ones. Or maybe math, but I believe you have that down. I see there are 5 Serb HQs, so a 90% failure rate would mean only 1 HQ every other turn, on average, in command.

I ran a test, and in 6 turns, no doing anything at all, the in command ranged from 4 out of 5 to 0 out of 5. I didn't calculate it but I would expect it would average around 2 per turn, or 40%, from the small set of results. Similar for the AH forces, who also are at 40%. I was surprised by the wild swings in failures though.

Anyway looks like bad luck based on my test. Try it yourself further and see what happens - just start a new battle HTH and end the turns and check what happens. I would expect better than 1 HQ every other turn.