Prussia in Peril - East Prussia '14 Central Powers AAR - major victory turn 114

[Elxaime]

Greetings -

As the Russian side here, congratulations to Comrade P for his well-earned victory! This was the second FWWC game we had played, and as in Serbia 14' I seem to have a penchant for being encircled. That said, it was a lot of fun and an entertaining game. Things became grimly predictable when Russian Second Army was completely encircled, but I kept on in hopes First Army could conquer enough VP to balance the losses. That proved optimistic.

As far as opening strategy:

Second Army: Having not played this scenario (or this title) before, I leaned heavily on the guidance notes, which suggested Second Army needed to be very aggressive if Russia was to earn an early termination victory. How to use that army? After considering the likelihood of German fortifications in central Prussia and the denser railway network there, I decided to do two things: a) aim the 2d Army in a northwesterly direction; b) concentrate 2d Army so it could remain under army command. The terrain towards the NW was more open, but it was thought that this would be thus more suitable for offensive operations. What I failed to properly account for was: a) the way the river lines fragment the Russian advance, as well as the irritating prewar obstacles; b) maintaining proper flank security, particularly towards the wide-open west. I was also somewhat at a loss on how best to deploy the numerous but poor morale Russian cavalry and took in retrospect a wrong approach in splitting them into smaller units and dismounting them, which made them easy prey for German cavalry charges.

First Army: Since First Army is bedeviled by the mandatory halts (until September 1) it was hard to plan ahead. I also wasn't sure the campaign wouldn't start with a Gumbinnen battle. The Russians start in poor position and could take a beating if the Germans decide to press them. I decided to see what would happen and move forward as much as I could when the army wasn't frozen, and see what chances developed.

Overall, strategically, as you can see, for the first part of the campaign the flow of battle is really dictated by the choices made for Second Army, as First Army is at the whim of fate on whether it can move. Generally, I adopted as I mentioned the same approach suggested by the notes - aggressive with Second Army, keeping them concentrated and moving so that, when they came under attack (as I knew they would) they could at least give a good account of themselves and make it easier for 1st Army after September 1.

As the game began, I felt somewhat confident as the Germans fell back everywhere. My first major error was not to realize the consequences of the Germans choosing not to refight the Battle of Gumbinnen, and instead withdraw outside of sight and let 1st Army sit. This meant troops arriving sooner in front of Second Army. My second error was the one that set into motion doom for the Tsarist cause: on 2d Army front I misused Russian cavalry and left both flanks poorly screened. This left the German flanking forces able to advance and complete a double-encirclement. The third error, and nail in the coffin, was waiting too long to withdraw the leading 2d Army Corps to the South/Southwest to avoid the developing cauldron - they were sitting atop valuable VP hexes which I was loathe to give up. More importantly, when I became aware the Germans had launched themselves to the south on a wide encirclement, due to lack of cavalry I could not block the southern river crossings. The loss of a Russian cavalry division on the left was of course a big problem, but I had also spread out the right wing Russian cavalry too far east to cover the gap with First Army. In retrospect I should have kept them closer to hand.

Once the pocket formed, I sensed it was just a matter of time. The only potential relief force was a single Russian cavalry division and four unattached infantry battalions (separated from their parent in the cauldron). The Russians in the cauldron managed to bloody some German attacks, even while disrupted and out of ammo, which was bittersweet since it only reminded of what they could have accomplished with proper supplies. First Army was able to chug along, but it was clear they would not be able to gather enough VP from their advance to compensate for 2d Army losses.

The Germans are to be saluted for executing a solid game plan.

In retrospect, I am not sure the overall strategy of the Russian Second Army was bad. A decent chunk of the German army was tied down dealing with them pretty far from the railheads, so it would have made it harder to switch the Germans later against First Army. In retrospect what I would have changed was: a) to take note of No Gumbinnen and prepare for an early appearance of the German I Korps and 1st Cavalry; b) realign the Russian cavalry as strong flank guards; c) take a more modest approach to advancing with Second Army.

This raises a general question about the scenario design. All things considered, the best approach, and I assume one most likely to be taken by the Germans, is not to attack at Gumbinnen. The best Russian approach, at that point, appears to be to take a much more conservative posture with Second Army. However, this gives up the only Russian chance of early termination victory, since they can't advance fast enough in the south if the Germans even send moderate reinforcements there early. If there is No Gumbinnen, the Russians at that point will be banking on trying to come out ahead over a full game through attrition. And if there is No Gumbinnen, and 2d Army advances deeper into East Prussia, they are basically: a) ensuring encirclement; b) the encirclement will be more convenient for the Germans as it will occur deeper into their railway system. I am not sure a more conservative approach will work, since the Germans later scenario West Front reinforcements are decent enough to enable a counterattack against First Army even without help from the German forces finishing off Second Army.

The challenge for the Russian player is that, while they have numerous forces, the poor command and supply means they have to keep them concentrated to be effective. The means to protect their flanks are the numerous but dubious Russian cavalry. Can it be done? That is where the fun is.

What might I change in the scenario design? I would add value to Russian VP hexes, especially in front of the First Army at the start, to exact a price for the Germans retreating and not choosing to fight Gumbinnen. I would also bulk up the VP values in East Prussia generally, since right now I don't think there are enough points to make the First and Second Army advances truly threatening. But then again, maybe things are OK as is - I can certainly point to the errors I made as sufficient reason for the Russian collapse. But I was sort of hoping the battle would continue even without the Second Army, but termination kicked in.

Ultimately, that is why I heartily recommend EP 14 campaign. It is a real puzzle for both sides. Your command decisions can make a real impact, although obviously you are observing some history constraints. Thanks again to Pieter/Comrade P for a well-deserved victory!