Thoughts on Disruption/Broken recovery...

[MisterMark]

Not sure I need your spreadsheet Mark, as it seems fairly straightforward - although I just focus on getting the unit as close to its HQ as possible, knowing that the HQ may have a wide area of disrupted units to try and rally - along with supply, helping units spot for artillery at full effectiveness etc.

But my summary would be that if a unit is stacked with its HQ, it has a 100 chance of passing the range test. If it is at max command range for the HQ, it would be at 50%. And anything in between would be between 50 and 100 percent.

If you are looking beyond just the range test to include the variations around passing the morale test, and also including the impact of the range test failing, then although my math would likely help me review your formula for correctness, it is something I have to say I don't want to put any thought into, sorry. It is just too meaningless to me to really care since the only factor I can really control is the actual range.

Rick

Ricky,

Yes agreed, the only factor you can control is the range but in playing with the different inputs (and assuming my math is correct) I found that the range has less impact on the probability of recovering than you might think, especially when outside of the command range and accounting for all the 'forks in the road' in the test.  In contrast moral seems to be the factor with the heaviest weighting when it comes to recovery.  Some examples from my calculations:

A unit with moral of C that is 15 hexes away from it's HQ and the HQ has a command range of 10, the probability the unit recovers is 46.67%.  If that same unit moves to the limit of the command range of 10, the probability will be 50% but it's only a net gain of less than 4%.  If that same unit moves to 5 hexes away from it's HQ the probability improves to 55.56%.  And if the units stacks right on top of it's HQ the probability improves to 66.67%.

In comparison to a unit with a moral of A (and the HQ's command range still 10), the probability of recovery is 70% at 15  hexes away, 75% at 10 hexes away, 83.33% at 5 hexes away and 100% when stacked right on top of their HQ.

I suppose there is no argument in saying that having your unit within command range is better than being outside of that command range when it comes to recovery, but it's only marginally better until you get well within the command range. My conclusion is that there are going to be some situations that it might not be worth retreating several hexes to get into the outer reaches of command range to recover.  Especially if you have high moral units and/or terrain and ground conditions are detrimental to speedy movement, not to mention the potential risks of being spotted in travel mode and taking on an artillery attack or being interdicted.  If it's going to take 2-3 turns to pull back 5 to 10 hexes to get into a command range of the limit or slightly better and another 2-3 turns to get back to the action, it may just be better to pull back a couple of hexes to break contact and wait it out for recovery.

These results might not be surprise to those who have been playing a long time and have a more natural and intuitive feel for it, but it was a surprising revelation to me.

Once again, I'm not 100% certain on my math to make these conclusions confidently so please take my analysis with a grain of salt until I can get them verified.

-Mark