Whoosh..

[Nort]

I think that was a PzV ...

[kineas]

Actually that's not correct either. the odds of hitting on your 5th shoot, (assuming no other factors change), is still only 20%.

POS's original description "because if it manages to squeeze off just 3 shots" indicates that he want's to fire 3 shots in a quick succession (and hoping for a 60% kill chance), and not contemplate on the chances of the 3rd shot after 2 misses.

Of course it would be 20% (provided the aiming don't get any better after the misses).

For a 60% kill chance you need to fire 5 shots.

[Copper]

Okay you nincompoops, I can't stand it any longer.

Calculating combined probability of a one time even happening is SIMPLE.

If you have 3 shots at 20% each, the probability of you not hitting is:
(.8)(.8)(.8)=.51.2 and your probability to hit is therefore 48.8%

If you have 3 shots at 90% each, the probability of you not hitting is:
(.1)(.1)(.1)= .1% and your probability to hit is 99.9%.

So there is about a 50 / 50 chance that you will hit on three tries of 20% and almost a 100% chance that you will hit once on three tries at 90%.

Cheers!

Leto

[McIvan]

And your chance of rolling 6 x twos in a row is 1/6x6x6x6x6x6, or 1/46,656.

Which is 0.00214%, leaving the other 99.99786% for the probability that at least one roll would have produced a different number.

I hope the opponent bought the first beer.

[The Coil]

Okay you nincompoops, I can't stand it any longer...

There's a reason Vegas makes so much money...

However the beauty of stats is how you look at them, so if you have already tossed the coin 4 times and it has come up 'tails' each time, the odds of your tossing a head is greatly imporves as the odds of you tossing a tail the 5th time iare against you.

If someone tosses a coin 4 times and it comes up tails each time, your best bet on the next flip is tails again, because at that point you start suspecting it's not a fair coin.

[kineas]

Leto]
Okay you nincompoops, I can't stand it any longer.
...

And you repeated everything I said :)

Homework: if a shot has x% chance to hit, how many shots do you have to fire to ensure y% to kill?

[The Coil]

Homework: if a shot has x% chance to hit, how many shots do you have to fire to ensure y% to kill?

Dear Kineas,

I think listening to Leto has befuddled you. Your question has little letters in it, whereas math traditionally uses numbers.

Sincerely,
The Coil

[mugger2006]

Homework: if a shot has x% chance to hit, how many shots do you have to fire to ensure y% to kill?

Hi there,
So as we saw before if you got a 20% chance to hit and you fire 3 shots you get a 0,8^3=0,512 chance not to hit.

So if you got a 20% to hit and you want to have a 90% hit rate you have to consider the following: 0,8^x=0,1. Since you want a 10% chance of not hitting which means you got a 90% chance to hit at the end.

You need to calculate the logarithm:
x=log[0,8](0,1) [=base], (=number) which you calculate with the natural logarithm (ln) like: ln(0,1)/ln(0,8)~10,32.
So you need about 10 shots. But as it's all about probability your first shot may hit.
So this only tells us that 9 out of 10 times you fire 10 shots at a target with a hit chance of 20% you'll score at least one hit.

To keep it short the more you'll fire the better your chance to score a hit.

As for spike:
when he fired 6 PIAT shots (with a hit chance of 20%) at my Panzer IV H he had a probability of 0,8^6 (~26,2%) of not hitting after the 6th shot. So if he retrys it 10 times with same conditions he will hit my tank at least roughly about 7 times (of course he can score more hit then this...)

But as often said that's war....:cool:

[PoorOldSpike]

Another thing to be considered is the "Spooky Factor" which basically means if you go through life pessimistically thinking you'll have bad luck, then you will have bad luck.

That's why if anybody wishes me "good luck" at the start of a game I sometimes reply-"thanks mate but I don't need it, we make our own luck so I won't risk offending you by wishing you good luck in return. Lady Luck is a fickle witch and we're too good to need her, just like Macbeth said to the 3 witches - "I neither beg nor fear thy favours", so Lady Luck can go take a running jump as far as old POS is concerned".. :)

That's been my attitude throughout 30 years of boardgaming and computer gaming and it hasn't done me any harm at all ..:)

Amazingly there seems to be some scientific evidence that people who think unlucky will be unlucky, as shown in a series of ESP experiments carried out by psychology Professor Gertrude Schmeidler, where the pessimistic subjects scored below average as she says -
"This was inexplicable by the physical laws we knew, it implied unexplored processes in the universe, an exciting new field for research. From then on, naturally, my primary research interest was parapsychology"
http://www.parapsych.org/members/g_schmeidler.html

No kidding, when some people begin a game of CM against me and they say- "I usually have bad luck so you'll probably win", I think to myself -'With that mindset mate you're probably right'.. :)
Right Lancey?


"Right kid"

[Bert Blitzkrieg]

I always wish my opponents good luck, because they're going to need it against me !:P