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RE: Operation Barbarossa - who knows ?
I realize I'm late to this discussion, but this is one I'd like to chime in on....
Read Glantz's Barbarossa, the beginning of the book will give you a good understanding of the Russian plans, deployments, and intentions. If you want a good understanding of the military side of Russians, Glantz is IMHO the man to read. Another good book for pre-war Red Army is Stumbling Colossus also by Glantz.
My understanding of Russian strategy is that the Russians moved forward as a result of Ribbentrop-Molotov Non-Agrression Pact. However, their incursions into Poland and the Baltic States to create buffer states brought them into direct contact with the Germans. This fact forced the Red Army to redraw their original war plans which were strategically defensive but operationally and tactically offensive.
As part of the deployment forward, the Stalin line was abandoned by the forces occupying with the intention of fighting as far forward as possible. However, Russian plans, engineering, and mobilization was not occuring quickly enough to get ahead of the impending invasion we now know as Barbarossa.
Also, there was disagreement between Stalin and the General Staff which resulted in the Army plan getting rewritten in Oct 1940 with Stalin's input. There were to be two echelons, one to bear the brunt of any German attack and the second to counterattack.
Disasterously it turns out, Stalin changed a key assumption in the plan which resulted in the Russians being off balance when the attack commenced. His change was the assumption that the Germans would strike the Ukraine by going South of the Pripiat Marshes. So when the main German effort went north, the bulk of the Red Army was out of position.
With the plan getting approved and implemented so late in the game and the mobilization taking longer than anticipated, the Russians were not fully prepared for the German attack.
When the Germans attacked in June 1941, the Russian were in the process of implementing State Defense Plan 1941. They were nowhere near complete though.
As a result of Stalin's changing the original plan, the Russians were also not deployed to stop the main German thrust north of the Pripiat Marshes. Therefore, when the Germans attacked they caught the Russians not fully mobilized as well as out of position to stop the main thrust.
Stalin was not seeking to fight Germany in 1941, in fact he went way out of his way to avoid conflict. That is not to say he didn't have plans down the road, but he wasn't looking to invade Germany in 1941.
Even when all indications were that the Germans were coming, he did not believe what he was being told. His plan was for the Germans and the Western powers to fight it out. Leaving him opportunites in the future. He was looking too far down the road to see the oncoming train right in front of him. He thought it was still pointed at Great Britain.
Most of the reason for such a poor showing for the Red Army and its mechanized units at the beginning of the war was because their best and brightest officers were dead or in Siberian Gulags as a result of the late 30's purges. At one time in the 30's, the Red Army was the most advanced, well trained and well equipped Army in the world. However, due to Stalin seeing traitors and spies at every turn, he gutted the Red Army of the very men who are necessary for an effective Army to exist.
In contrast to the Russians, the Germans surged forward and had tremendous difficulties. They expected to knock Russia out quickly and in no way were prepared for a long war. However, the Red Army even in defeat was putting up a tremendous fight and bleeding the Germans white. Even when they were getting whole Armies annihilated, the Russians didn't roll over.
As the German moved forward, they were continuously victorious, enveloping large Red Army formation, but the cost on the Wehrmacht in men and material was tremendous as well. By the time they approached Moscow, the German Army was exhausted at the end of a very long supply chain, but even so they expected the Russians to collapse at any moment. Unfortunately for them, Stalin's Siberian Troops had other plans. It was Stalin heeding what his spies were telling him about Japan that actually saved Moscow.
I've always wondered what would have happened if the Russians had been fully mobilized for the German attack. What would have been the outcome?
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