To all opponents, co-commanders, etc.

[alaric99x]

I'm back in the USSR.....

It was with some sense of irony that I landed on the 4th of July in Minsk, "Republic" of Belarus, the last dictatorship of Europe. It was no great surprise when I got to the home of my wife's family and found that the lock had been broken on my suitcase and that my laptop was missing. It's my own fault, I somehow forgot what country I would be visiting. To put myself even further out of communication, I also forgot the password for my email. For some reason Yahoo asked me to change that a few months ago so I plugged in something at random. I never had to remember it because my computer had it in memory. I next tried to get a new password by answering my personal questions. No problem with that except in August 2009 I also entered my favorite author. Well, I have about 50 favorite authors so I tried to remember who I might have favored in 2009 and started plugging in names. After I gave a sufficient number of wrong answers, the system locked me out completely. I won't be able to access any emails until after 17 July at which time I can try to correct this back in the US.

I know this all sounds amazingly stupid for a guy who seems to be able to comprehend Tiller wargames, no further comment on that....

Anyway, I'm having an interesting time here in Minsk, suddenly I'm rich. The local dictator has screwed up the economy so thoroughly that they're having quite an economic crisis right now. Since the beginning of the year the Belarus ruble has lost over 50% of its value. You could get 3115 rubles for a US dollar in May before a government devaluation. The rate today is just under 5000 for a dollar, but there aren't any dollars (or Euro) available in the banks. The real rate, or black market rate, is a little different. On 6 July my brother in law got me 6000 rubles for each dollar, two days later I bought some more and the rate was 6250 per dollar. People are very eager to get dollars, or any other kind of reliable currency. That's usually not possible so they buy any kind of nonperishable product just to get rid of the rubles. Over here the US dollar is the unofficial currency, it has been ever since the dissolution of the CCCP. My brother in law owns a truck and car repair shop with one other partner, they only accept dollars or Euro in payment. Regular employees, paid in ruble, end up with less value in each paycheck, retirees are in a particularly deplorable situation. Agriculture in this country is produced by collective farms and the economic model is based on the dictator's concept of central planning which he calls "market socialism." Somebody tell me why that isn't working.

[Mr Grumpy]

Thanks for the story of your trip so far (sorry about your laptop :( ), always interesting to read first hand accounts of how everyday life is in some of the less well know ex USSR countries.

[alaric99x]

...and today I could get 6500 rubles for my dollar, up to 7000 if I can find people desperate enough. The official exchange rate remains at just under 5000.

I'll go into a little more detail for those who may be interested. I've been watching this place for over 8 years since I met my wife who is from here. The dictator has been in power since 1994. He keeps fixing elections so he may end up becoming one of those "president for life" guys. His background is agriculture, or expert on collective farming. Russia tolerates him simply because they don't want Belarus to get too friendly with the EU. In fact, Russia is waiting like a vulture to retake control of this place. In past years Russia had provided Belarus with fuel and natural gas far below market prices. There were years of discussions about a common currency and closer economic ties between Belarus and Russia, each time the dictator backed off just before an agreement could be reached. A few years ago Russia announced that Belarus would have to pay market prices for fuel and gas, they have been raising the prices of those commodities by increments over the past few years. Without those subsidies Belarus started having economic problems, the broken economy never could sustain this country without some outside help. Fuel and gas prices, although much higher now, still haven't reached market levels, so this is another burden Belarus will be facing. Belarus started taking loans from Russia and the IMF. Russia always demanded compensation for the loans. Russian state owned Gazprom was able to purchase a share of Belarus transit pipelines as part of a 2009 loan agreement. Recently Russia agreed to another loan of $3 billion with the condition that they would be allowed to purchase a further $7.5 billion in Belarus state assets. The dictator made angry speeches about the Russian wanting to take everything of value from the people of Belarus, but he really has no choice other than to accept those conditions. The $3 billion from Russia is not nearly enough to save this economy and that loan will be paid out in tranches over a 3 year period, Belarus will get less than half of that $3 billion by the end of this year. So the dictator has asked the IMF for an emergency loan of $8 billion. The IMF lent $3.46 billion in 2009, but that loan was terminated because agreed upon conditions of economic reform were not met by Belarus. Among other recommendations, the IMF suggested that exchange rates be allowed to float. That never happened, that's why there's such a disparity beween the official exchange rate and the actual rate on the street. The dictator makes a lot of happy noises when he needs money, but then things go on as always once he gets the money. Additionally, Belarus intends to do initial publc offerings of stocks in two state owned companies. Of course, almost all major companies here are state owned. These are a dump truck manufacturer, BelAz, and a potash maker, Belaruskali. An IPO in this case is somewhat of a joke because of a lack of tranparency, not to mention the ailing local economy. Investors would want to see detailed financial records covering some years for these companies, and that just doesn't exist in Belarus. If any entity buys these stocks it will probably be Russia, giving Russia further control of assets in this country.

Historically Belarus has almost never been independent having been controlled by Lithuania, Poland, Imperial Russia and then the Soviet Union. The people here are amazingly complacent, other nationalities would have revolted long ago. Still, the situation isn't like the crisis of 1991, this tiime it's clear to everyone who is to blame. The dictator makes all the decisions and now we have the internet and other forms of instant communications. People are organizing and starting to protest. There's a square in town where people gather every Wednesday, we were warned to stay away from the place. They used to carry signs, but of course, they immediately got arrested for that. Now they gather and just clap, so the dictator made it illegal to clap in that place and people are getting arrested for clapping. Minsk, incidentally, has the largest per capita police force in Europe. So who knows what will happen here? As complacent as these people seem to be, any society can only tolerate so much. It may not happen soon, but if things keep going the way they are, it's inevitable that some kind of tipping point will eventually be reached. Incidentally, I never mentioned the dictator's name because the local goons also monitor internet communications so there is some small danger that they could track the source and prosecute me for insulting the president, another law made by the dictator.

[Florek112]

Thanks for posting, situation in Belarus is very interesting now. Few of my fellow students, came from there. But to be honest - current protests are more based on worseing economic situation (that happens now, even in democratic countries - Greece for example), not straightly against the regime. When Belarus was supported by Russian resources, and standard of living wasn't so bad, overall goverment approval was quite high. Of course not as high as in the official polls, but dictator L. could win the elections, even without fixing them, only with lower score. True Belarussian problem is lack of strong, united opposition. Little curiosity: 6th July, during the "clapping" protest, one-handed man was arrested for clapping, and fined in the amount of 1 050 000 000 rubles. Verdict was based on the testimony of one witness, and court did not explain how you can clap with one hand...

[alaric99x]

Arrested for clapping with one hand? Why does this not surprise me?

Florek, you're in Wroclaw. My father is from there, actually from Breslau. He left the place in 1945 when the Red Army got there. I always wanted to visit your city. I made it to Warsaw 4 times and Krakau once. I love Polska, wonderful friendly people and reasonable prices everywhere. The success of Poland should be an inspiration to Belarus. The son of my wife's cosmetologist was arrested for protesting in Minsk and removed from studies in his university. He managed to get across the Polish border and your government supported him and put him in a Polish university. Poland is one of the best friends the US has in Europe.

[jonnymacbrown]

Verdict was based on the testimony of one witness, and court did not explain how you can clap with one hand...

The Zen Koan being: "What is the sound of one hand clapping." Apparently the police in Minsk have the answer! :smoke:

[Tanker Mike]

It was with some sense of irony that I landed on the 4th of July in Minsk, "Republic" of Belarus, the last dictatorship of Europe. It was no great surprise when I got to the home of my wife's family and found that the lock had been broken on my suitcase and that my laptop was missing. It's my own fault, I somehow forgot what country I would be visiting.

Sorry to hear you lost your laptop. Just a friendly piece of advice from someone who travels over 100 days a year flying all over North America and elsewhere. I would NEVER pack my laptop in my checked luggage. None of my co-workers would either. Why?

1-It can be stolen which you are well aware of.
2-The bag could not make your flight for any number of reasons.
No bag, no computer.
3-Handling of checked bags can be rough on electronic gear. Bags can get soaked by rain while waiting to be loaded or moved. High heat or extreme cold can wreak havoc on a computer while it is on the tarmac or in the air. Bags can really get tossed around while being moved too.

My laptop ALWAYS travels with me on my carry-on back pack. Even if I am in a cab, the bag is right next to me.

Anyway, not trying to lecture you, just sharing some road wisdom.:)

Mike

[alaric99x]

No offense taken, Mike. What can I say? Once burned, twice learned.

---

.

The Zen Koan being: "What is the sound of one hand clapping." Apparently the police in Minsk have the answer! :smoke:
[/quote]

The version of the koan I recall is the master asking that question and not receiving an adequate response or satisfactory contemplation on the part of the student. At some point the master slaps the student across the face to display the sound of one hand clapping.

[Florek112]

Florek, you're in Wroclaw. My father is from there, actually from Breslau. He left the place in 1945 when the Red Army got there. I always wanted to visit your city. I made it to Warsaw 4 times and Krakau once. I love Polska, wonderful friendly people and reasonable prices everywhere. The success of Poland should be an inspiration to Belarus. The son of my wife's cosmetologist was arrested for protesting in Minsk and removed from studies in his university. He managed to get across the Polish border and your government supported him and put him in a Polish university. Poland is one of the best friends the US has in Europe.

Actually, I'm not from Wroclaw, came here few years ago to study. City is great, I found it better than Warsaw. I don't know Krakow well, so can't compare. Nice to hear that You enjoyed Your visits. Our families have a common thing - running away from Red Army, because one of my grandmothers lived near Wilno, and escaped after the Soviet invasion in 39', than lived under German occupation, and obviously, she couldn't return after the war.
I also met few people from Belarus, with the similar story You told. Although I am not supporter of the current goverment, but sometimes they do something good. Let me know if You made it to Wroclaw sometime. ;) Greetings!

[Witblitz]

Sorry to hear that its so bad. Seems like a Zimbabwe crisis unfolding, only thousands of KM's away. The most significant similarity is both places have dictators. Absolute power corrupts absolutely - cant recall who said that.