Several Moscow 42 Questions

[Nitram Draw]

No, what I'm saying is that there's a chance units are destroyed at an ahistorically high rate, with the resulting high casualties (I guess this applies to both sides).

Well they sure will be if you attack at an ahistorically high rate.

[Strela]

I'm getting more worried about German losses and their chance to recover from them the more I play the game.

The problem I see is for the following situation:

-The Soviets move a stack next to your unit.
1)You can decide to stand and resist the assault, which will generally result in 30-50 losses from the assault alone, excluding artillery fire.
2) You move 1 hex back, you avoid the assault but do take artillery/air strike losses, usually 5-10 or so per turn (sometimes more but 5-10 is a reasonable average to account for Soviet artillery moving up or being unavailable) when the Soviets spot you again.
-The situation continues for several turns. As you can generally move back only 1 or 2 hexes, you're always in (vision) range of the nearest Soviet unit. If you take 30-50 losses per turn, your battalion dies in 1-2 days. If you retreat, and take average losses of ~5-10 men per turn, it dies in 4-10 days or so.

The main problem is not having any time to recover/stop. If a unit replaces the battalion you're concentrating on in the line, the situation just starts over and the battalion that was replaced will still have to retreat with the rest of the line and won't have a chance of taking replacements unless it stops for a turn outside of the range of the enemy. The German replacement rate is such that even an A quality unit isn't likely to attract more than 7-9 replacements per turn, or about 1 good artillery barrage. As you can only replace losses through the replacement % mechanic when you haven't moved and haven't been attacked, all it takes is for some Soviet unit to either assault or take some potshots at you during the night to make sure you can't take replacements.

The low protection % offered by the terrain, the slow movement rate of units in most terrain types, the low per turn replacement rate and the lack of reserves that can realistically hold the Soviets back for a while makes it possible for German units to get into a downward spiral many of them can't seem to recover from.

If I'm missing something, do tell, because the situation of the German player looks quite grim from the perspective of sustainability.

ComradeP,

You are confirming exactly what happened in this campaign. The Germans had requested a stop in operations and Guderian had actually begun to retreat north of Tula because he was so dangerously exposed. As the German player you have to consider the same thing. As you pointed out once you begin to retreat you will take less losses and if the Soviets persist in following you during the night then they will suffer a disproportionate impact from night disruption.

Also keep in mind that the German player has no incentive to hold forward. There are very few forward objectives other than transport nexus that need to be held and then only to allow a retreat path. The other big consideration is supply. The replacement rules used are modified by supply. The further below 50 it is the less replacements received. The only way to increase supply is to retreat closer to the supply sources.

From a Soviet perspective they will never be stronger but will face German units that are still potent, particularly when they shorten their line or defend in the bunker line. Also as the Soviets advance they have exactly the same issue as the Germans - extended supply lines.

As a designer we have to give you the same dilemmas your historical compatriot had, I think this has been achieved, but I also think you will see the Soviets can't maintain the pace long term.

David

[Ricky B]

...

For example: AGC (the entire Army Group, all armies in it combined) reported losses of, on average 463 KIA, 1674 WIA and 208 MIA per day in the period of January 1st to January 10th 1942. That's about 2345 men per day at one of the peak times of the 1941-1942 winter offensive, or about 390 men per daylight turn. In game terms, you can achieve that with between 8 and 16 assaults with 3 battalions vs. 1 German battalion, without any artillery fire.

Comrade, I don't know what source you used for your numbers here, but while they seem reasonable, I do think they are a bit low. This site http://www.feldgrau.com/stats.html, which has numbers that are similar to at least one other source I have seen, shows the Germans lost around 44,000 men KIA and 10,000 MIA in the month of January 1942. I would guess half of these or a bit more would be from AGC where the majority of the fighting was occuring during the month. Now this includes losses from the weather, I am not sure if your numbers do or not. With frostbite losses as WIA, I would still guess a 3-1 WIA to KIA ration, so add in another 130,000 wounded - but many returned to action fairly soon, they had to. Still that gives ~95,000 men lost in action in AGC, or 3200 per day all month long - again reasonably close to your number but still higher.

However, losses in PzC include men out of action for various reasons - got lost from the unit while retreating, ran away, etc. These make up some of the men adding to unit strength when the units do get to rest.

Anyway, while the pursuit is on losses will run higher than average, and higher than your numbers, but there will be pauses in some areas and losses will be lower, at least normally for a long campaign. For example, there is no way the Soviets will be able to assault numerous times every single turn - either the Germans will be crushed or will be moving away down the roads in T mode, leaving a rear guard behind. Don't forget to use rear guards when retreating, or contact will never be broken.

Overall your comments work in the short term, but as the days go by the losses will drop at times and average out lower than you expect.

But I will agree that in PzC absolute losses as reported will be higher than historical in most cases - it is easier to keep pushing an offensive when they aren't real mean marching through the snow, and the "losses" as I mentioned aren't always historical KIA/WIA/MIA.

That is my take anyway.

Rick

[Liquid_Sky]

Hmm..I was going to come in here with a discussion on the difference between recovery and replacements, but have noticed something very ummm...odd. The recovery rate is set for zero percent for both sides.

That means the 1% rate is the only guys you are going to see, although the math will be easier since it is based on the strength of the unit, and not the number of casualties (like with recovery).

Essentially it will mean a german comes back every turn for every wounded company that isn't fired upon/moved/or otherwise engaged in an activity.

With half a million germans on the map, or roughly 2500 companies, it isn't a stretch of the imagination to see 500-1000 men returning *each* turn, on the entire map.

[Liebchen]

Hmm..I was going to come in here with a discussion on the difference between recovery and replacements, but have noticed something very ummm...odd. The recovery rate is set for zero percent for both sides.

My understanding was that this was done to enhance the relationship between "recovery" and the supply lines, i.e stragglers gathering around the depots?

Well, I was partway there:

The replacement flag in the OB is used in place of the recovery loss parameter. This is to allow more equivalent replacements in scenarios while having an impact from low supply.

[Strela]

Hmm..I was going to come in here with a discussion on the difference between recovery and replacements, but have noticed something very ummm...odd. The recovery rate is set for zero percent for both sides.

My understanding was that this was done to enhance the relationship between "recovery" and the supply lines, i.e stragglers gathering around the depots?

Well, I was partway there:

The replacement flag in the OB is used in place of the recovery loss parameter. This is to allow more equivalent replacements in scenarios while having an impact from low supply.

That's the intention. As mentioned in the designer notes replacement is used in place of recovery as recovery is modified by morale state in particular. This would unfairly favour the Germans and punish the Soviets. The replacement flag in the OB worked much better to represent the flow of recruits as it was only modified by supply state.

[ComradeP]

Strela, although I understand the design decision and think that, overall, the fighting is modelled well, the problem I see is that whole unit losses could be ahistorically high, sort of making this a mini-"Destruction of AGC."

Comrade, I don't know what source you used for your numbers here, but while they seem reasonable, I do think they are a bit low.

They are fairly low, but I'm guessing they only include pure combat losses and not deaths from frostbite or deaths through wounds.

http://ww2stats.com/cas_ger_okh_dec42.html

[Strela]

Strela, although I understand the design decision and think that, overall, the fighting is modelled well, the problem I see is that whole unit losses could be ahistorically high, sort of making this a mini-"Destruction of AGC."

Like all designers, I am very happy to get thoughtful feedback. I can only suggest you play some multiple days and let us know your experience. My only caveat is that the campaigns are definitely not designed to be played against the AI and your results may vary if you base your observations on the bigger scenarios.

David

[76mm]

Strela, I have another question--what is the rationale for locking so many of the Sov units for several days at the beginning of the campaign? (I didn't see the rationale in the designer's notes, sorry if I overlooked it). Is it simply how the Sovs decided to attack, or was there some compelling reason why these units could not attack? Or is it also an element of play balance?

[ComradeP]

This is just a guess, but maybe 16th Army's fixed to give the Germans a chance to pull back in some reasonably good order. With the initial setup, it could push down the highway rather quickly whilst its historical gains until the 15th were actually quite small (~10 kilometres or so). Likewise, maybe the forces opposing 2nd Panzer Group are fixed for a little while longer to allow the Germans a chance at making the historical retreat, which aside from heavy equipment losses seems to have gone fairly well.

The Germans do have some flexibility as the forces opposing part of 5th Army and 16th Army are not fixed, but that will generally mean you can pull back a bit to somewhat better defensive positions together with the rest of the front. 16th Army's still very powerful and will hit you hard when it activates.