France '14 Historical outcome

[Volcano Man]

OK, I spent a great deal of time calculating out the changes (from last night until now). I think I have hit the nail on the head now, or at least come close to it. F14 v1.03 update will feature the new "v2" of the early campaign that adjusts the VP levels and objective levels in a manner described above.

If anyone wants to give it a spin early then let me know and I will either email it or put a link to it here. I will name the file something like "v2" on the end of it so it won't overwrite the current one until the next update (but you should delete that file after the next update).

If a campaign is in progress already, some very creative people could use it as a comparison to their current results (you would have to do your own calculations -- use the VP levels from the new scenario, and determine which objectives the Germans have taken, use the points from the new scenario, then add it all up yourself). Tedious, but it works. ;)

[Volcano Man]

Actually, I assumed that someone will be interested in playing it now. So here is a link to get it if you want it:

http://www.volcanomods.com/temporary/191...rly_v2.zip

As I said, I named this with "v2" on the end so it doesn't overwrite anything until the v1.03 update. Consider this the now official version of the scenario, but you should delete this file after the next update becomes available because I will adopt the original filename at that point (don't know when that will be yet).

Here is the text that will appear in the v1.03 notes:

- Drastically improved the VP levels and objective values in the #1914_0822_01s_Campaign_Early scenario. Based on feedback from campaign results, the old VP levels and objective values have been quartered. The change is minimal, but it has a drastic impact on the game play since greater historical emphasis is now placed on casualties than before (for example, von Moltke's historical decision to turn away from Paris was based largely on the desire of destroying the French Army by inflicting heavy losses on it in a double envelopment). It is rationalized that any losses sustained on a level that is massively out of proportion to the enemy's (on a difference of a half of a field army of men or more) would have influenced the outcome of the war, as the political will to fight a prolonged conflict would have likely been broken immediately. In regards to the changes to the campaign the following points must be mentioned...
a) Neither side can no longer afford to lose over a hundred thousand men and thousands of guns more than their enemy, doing so will alter the outcome.
b) If one side manages the elusive "holy grail" result of isolating and destroying an entire enemy field army then the campaign will likely be won easily. This was not possible before.
c) It has now been calculated that the Allies can afford to fall back from the start to the Marne, and still keep the game close in the draw result region. Losses above or beyond this, or taking back or losing objectives along the final line should tip the result one way or the other.
d) A forward Allied defense that disregards all losses should reliably result in no better result for them than a draw now, depending on how many losses were inflicted and which objectives were held of course. However, such an Allied tactic is risky because, combined with high losses, and just "a few more objectives" taken by the Germans will likely result in a Central Powers victory, rarely resulting in an Allied victory unless something miraculous occurs (such as like loss ratios are kept close).
e) Because of the changes above, the odds are stacked a little more fairly. A successful Allied tactic now is to bloody the Germans at the start, then break contact and fall back and repeat. Continue to fall back, periodically holding or counter attacking (delaying) in some areas as you, overall, continue the strategic withdrawal. The point in which the Allies should withdraw is once the Germans begin inflicting heavier casualties than the the Allies themselves are inflicting, taking into consideration also the time spent delaying the German advance. In other words, a series of delaying actions, with each disengaging at the point when the Germans begin to get the upper hand is advised. Near the end of the campaign, perhaps in the final week or so, the Allies should be looking to hold fast and counter attack where possible. Do this too early and the Germans may decimate the Allies and win from objectives and casualties inflicted. Do this at the right time and the Allies can push the Germans back and possibly administer heavier losses on the enemy (think of the historical out flanking at the Marne for example, and the near destruction of the German 1.Armee).

Thanks for the feedback everyone. I think the big issue in my original calculations was my false assumption that if the Allies held early then they would collapse totally, thus opening the way to the big point objectives. This clearly does not seem to be the case because both sides are more or less very equally matched (which is a good/historical thing), thus the requirement of my recalculation here.

Anyway, these changes here are probably not perfect, but what is? At least we can be confident that it can only be better now, and it will be tweaked over time if need be. ;)

[jonnymacbrown]

"Still though, the VP levels and objective values must be adjusted and they will."

Knowing what I know now; if there were no objective hexes I'd immediately pull back towards Paris asap leaving cavalry and some rearguards to cover the withdrawal, taking some hits but linking up with the Paris Garrison, and while a Plan XVII attack in the Ardennes is amusing, it is far easier to just get the hell out of there quick while holding onto Nancy, Verdun and Toul. jonny

[Mike Bowen]

What I think is needed (and is possible in squad battles so Tiller may be able to port it) (and not just for 1914 other Pz Camp could do with it) is variable VP objectives. For example if the Germans got points for capturing an objective even if they then lose it that would allow for the right hook to be in game terms a success.

Mike

[Volcano Man]

"Still though, the VP levels and objective values must be adjusted and they will."

Knowing what I know now; if there were no objective hexes I'd immediately pull back towards Paris asap leaving cavalry and some rearguards to cover the withdrawal, taking some hits but linking up with the Paris Garrison, and while a Plan XVII attack in the Ardennes is amusing, it is far easier to just get the hell out of there quick while holding onto Nancy, Verdun and Toul. jonny

Yes, that is the other option. I actually though about removing all the objectives except for the ones in the south that run from Paris-Verdun-Nancy, and of course keep the ones at Antwerp. Lets see if this new change improves anything first though. If not then I will go to this Plan B. :) Needless to say, my ears are open -- I just didn't want to make this drastic of a change yet unless it is proved to be absolutely necessary, in a "v3" of the scenario if need be. Also, another reason why I was hesitant to do this is because it does not award the German player "something" depending on how far they can advance. Essentially it would mean that they Germans MUST advance to the Marne area to get any objective points whatsoever and I don't know if I like that idea. Of course such a change would mean that the VPs they need for a victory would be much lower than the current level, thereby making it so they could win by eliminating more Allied units, so that might be a good thing too -- I have to brainstorm that for a long time to know which approach is best.

Also, in regards to Plan XVII, I can't talk about it now but there will be a feature in the next title (that will carry over to F14) which will make it so that the French actually can execute their historical attack in the Ardennes in a hope of triggering a "sudden death" victory. Of course this chance will gradually slip away though as the Germans swing around in the west, but hopefully it will create a historical dilemma (should the French abandon their plan that is already in progress immediately, or continue to execute it and for how long?) and it means keeping and possibly adding more objectives deep in the Ardennes, and at Metz. It will hopefully put a fresh twist on the campaign and keep things exciting, and give a reason for the French to actually execute their historical attack. :)

[FM WarB]

Thanks, Ed

I have looked at the new scenario and believe it is the way to go. WWI was all about attrition.
I wonder if the changes will have any effect on the way the Namur situation is played, with both players knowing the Belgian 4th Division and the German GD Reserve and XI Korps will be disappearing.

I guess I can stop calling you "Francophile Ed."...LoL

[jonnymacbrown]

Here is the final tally n the 158 turn played by myself and Tom Quinn:



The French had 650,000 men and 3000 guns.
BEF= 35,000 230 guns

The Germans had 836,000 men and 3,600 guns.

Using the new data, would this have been a loss for the French? jonny

[Volcano Man]

Using the new data, would this have been a loss for the French? jonny

No. I said it would have been about a draw, and no better. I am sorry if you don't like that idea, but it is the only way it can be to encourage even remotely historical action on the Allied side, and perhaps even a little more smaller changes will be necessary in the future.

You cannot directly compare the final VP level here with the new VP levels in the v2 scenario, as I said, this is not how it works -- *everything* is scaled downwards, including the objective values. If you do the math, my calculation of your result with v2 scenario puts the Central Powers at 347 points inside of a Draw, which sounds perfect to me, given that you lost over 100,000 more men and 1,000 more guns --half an army in the process, so not a victory or a defeat here but a draw. As I said, the risk of choosing to hold everything to the last man immediately is that the best you could probably hope for is a draw unless you end up with something that is relatively even in loss ratio, which wouldn't be very likely to pull off. Also, the risky part about that decision is that if the Germans managed to take just a few more objectives then it they would have gotten a victory. So now you should fall back, trading space for time and conduct periodic counter attacks, but prepare for a final all out battle near the end of the campaign. Hmm, sounds historical. Not sure what more can be said, nor why this would be considered a bad thing.

You can of course keep the original scenario around for beating up against the AI. ;)

[Hoplite]

I have found the modified scenario in my e-mail after digging. But it was 0906_03S but no luck about this one. Is it new? Should I wait for the new patch. France 14 is all time my favorite game. I can not enter Volcano man site to download modified early campaign.

[jonnymacbrown]

"No. I said it would have been about a draw, and no better. I am sorry if you don't like that idea, but it is the only way it can be to encourage even remotely historical action on the Allied side, and perhaps even a little more smaller changes will be necessary in the future.

You cannot directly compare the final VP level here with the new VP levels in the v2 scenario, as I said, this is not how it works -- *everything* is scaled downwards, including the objective values. If you do the math, my calculation of your result with v2 scenario puts the Central Powers at 347 points inside of a Draw, which sounds perfect to me, given that you lost over 100,000 more men and 1,000 more guns --half an army in the process, so not a victory or a defeat here but a draw. As I said, the risk of choosing to hold everything to the last man immediately is that the best you could probably hope for is a draw unless you end up with something that is relatively even in loss ratio, which wouldn't be very likely to pull off. Also, the risky part about that decision is that if the Germans managed to take just a few more objectives then it they would have gotten a victory. So now you should fall back, trading space for time and conduct periodic counter attacks, but prepare for a final all out battle near the end of the campaign. Hmm, sounds historical. Not sure what more can be said, nor why this would be considered a bad thing."



Sorry I clicked on the wrong icon. I think the new scenario is a good idea. Even trying to keep losses down, the Germans are usually under 1 million by Turn 81 (Sept. 1) and there's just no place to go except straight ahead and outnumbered against mounting opposition. A good what if scenario with the original might be "Moltke gets guts" or. how the campaign would turn out if those two Army Korps are not sent east. jonny