Serbia shall live! Serbia '14 4th Invasion AAR - Central Powers conceded turn 150

[ComradeP]

Day 11, 06:00 October 17th 1915. Mud and Storm conditions. Turn 80.



Not much is happening, just pulling back a bit. It's tempting to attack the Landsturm units in front of the Morava II Division and the Danube II Division, but that will have to wait.



The withdrawal of the border guard companies made redeployment necessary.

At the moment, the Danube I Division has little more than a screening force on its right flank.

That's not particularly dangerous: the Germans brought plenty of hammers, but there's no anvil to smash my forces against.

[ComradeP]

Day 12, 06:00 October 18th 1915. Mud conditions. Turn 88.

I'll post these zoomed out overview screenshots for days where little has happened on the operational level the previous day.



With there being no more objective to hold in the Beograd sector, and most having been held until they expired, it's time to start pulling back my forces there. In a few days, the Morava II Division will link up with the Sokol Brigade that has been digging in at Valjevo for nearly a week by now.

The Chetniks that were with the border guard units until they withdrew are pulling back behind Morava II's screen. They'll redeploy with the divisions in the area.



The lines are starting to straighten in this sector, I would be surprised if there were Germans further south than the ones I can see.

As to losses, the last time I checked I had recovered about a quarter of my losses in terms of strength gained relative to the initial strength. The big drop in manpower compared to the initial situation in the strength dialog comes from the withdrawn Frontier Guard companies for the 1st and 3rd Armies as well as the Beograd Defence Detachment, all part of the Northern Front.

Aside from a handful of units that were hit hard, I doubt the manpower situation for the Central Powers is problematic for even one formation.

I've destroyed 3 German battalions as mentioned earlier, and "off screen" the Sumadija II Division at Knjazevac nearly wiped out a Bulgarian battalion through assaults when the Bulgarian battalion couldn't retreat due to Serbian ZOCs. With a week or so of rest, that unit should be combat capable again. The scenario is long enough to replace even disastrous losses.

I have only shown the situation in the northern part of the map since the start of the game, and this is a good time to start showing the rest.



Fortress Zajechar sector.

What's inconvenient here is that the border guard companies holding the sector north of this screenshot, where the Krajina Detachment started, belong to 3rd Army and have been withdrawn.

The A-H Landsturm brigade in the area can cross the Danube without being opposed.

The Krajina Detachment is in the woods to the north-west of the screenshot, pulling back south/south-west.

The Negotin Detachment has been moving since it was released and is now at the Velika Morava river at Paracin after following the Paracin-Zajechar primary road west for a few days.

At Zajechar fortress, the Combined Division faces the Bulgarian 6th Bdinska Division. After some initial skirmishing, not much has happened, but the Combined Division is now in position to attack an exposed Bulgarian brigade.

The border guard companies are rationalizing their positions to make sure they're not too vulnerable now that the bulk of the Combined Division will soon be in combat unless my opponent pulls back.



Fortress Knjazevac-Fortress Nis sector.

Fortress Pirot further east has been abandoned entirely as it's little more than a trap against an opponent who knows what he's doing. There are two Bulgarian divisions in the north-east and one moving up from the east along the primary road.

The Sumadija II Division will slowly change positions to a "diagonal" deployment between Nis and Knjazevac.

The Morava I Division is mostly in Nis by now, but I decided to be cautious and sent the southernmost part of the division (as shown in the initial position screenshot earlier in the thread) west through the mountains to the Tumba Detachment as I feared the Bulgarians would cut the primary road before the units could get there.

That was a correct decision as the Bulgarian 1st Sofiyska Division initially came charging up the road as if they were going on a fox hunt. They ran into the rearguard of the Timok I Division and the pace slowed after that.

Meanwhile, the Timok I Division got the heck out of dodge before the two Bulgarian divisions in front of Zajechar could cut the road by moving south.

There are only two border guard companies in the hills around Pirot, there are no other Serbian units east of this screenshot.



Vranje sector.

Here you can see the Morava I Division units I mentioned earlier as they have nearly reached the Tumba Detachment and momentary safety.

The Sumadija I Division, after marching here through Nis from their starting position west of Pirot, has exchanged blows with the Bulgarian battalions that start in the area but I don't think my opponent expected there to be a whole division here. The front has been quiet for days.

You can also see the northern part of the cavalry screen from here to positions east of Skoplje.

Which brings us to the biggest change in deployment compared to the initial situation...




Skoplje sector.

Note that in the initial situation, the only unit here is the New Territories Army HQ.

At the top of the screenshot is The Cavalry Division (not to be confused with the Bulgarian The Cavalry Division) deployed as a screen.

The green infantry counters are from the Timok II Division which moved here by train from positions south of Beograd.

From the east, the Krivopalanska Detachment is starting to arrive.

The purple counters are the lead elements of the French 156e DI that have been arriving by rail.



Further south(-east) in Macedonia, I haven't decided yet what I'll do with the Bregalnica Division after it's finally formed up in a "safe" location.



The Uzice Detachment has redeployed further north and has prepared some defensive positions which, at the moment, I don't intend to hold but which will be useful when/if the Landsturm units arrive. One unit holds Stari Grad castle at Uzice in case my opponent tries to be sneaky.

The Montenegrin forces are 6 men short compared to their starting strength, the Landsturm units on the other side of the river are not doing much at the moment.

[ComradeP]

Day 13, 06:00 October 19th 1915. Soft Conditions. Turn 96.



Over the next couple of days, the line will straighten roughly from Valjevo to Palanka. The unnamed (at this zoom level) objective in the center of the map and Palanka have to be held until turn 126.

Beograd Detachment's Combined Detachment (a separate brigade-level HQ) composed of D quality Cadre troops will hold the hill.

I'll slowly start thinning out the Beograd Detachment's front so some units can rest, "leapfrogging" units as they withdraw so I can alternate which unit rests.

The Danube I Division will start rationalizing/straightening its front focused on the hills north of Palanka.



The Drina I Division is still slowly withdrawing south.

The units of the Krajina Detachment on the eastern edge of the screenshot will use the improved weather conditions to (nearly) reach the primary road from the fortresses to the Danube. 



The Combined Division caused a few hundred losses to Bulgarian infantry battalions, knocked out 21 Bulgarian guns (but no entire field gun units) and destroyed 2 MG units. The forest made it difficult to cause more damage in mud conditions yesterday. Not bad, but nothing that will cause difficulties for the Bulgarians.

There's a border guard company behind Bulgarian lines. It won't move until it is withdrawn to prevent silly things from happening.

The Bulgarians have captured Pirot for 500 points. There's still a border guard company there in a redoubt, it will stay put until it is withdrawn.



At Visegrad, Landsturm units are crossing the river after constructing a bridge. They'll capture the objective for a turn or two during the day before withdrawing to their crossing hex as shown here. I don't think the Montenegrin forces can throw them back across the river.

One heavy rail bridge across the Drina starts intact, the sixth Montenegrin battalion in the area is watching it south-west of this screenshot.

[ComradeP]

Day 14, 06:00 October 20th 1915. Mud conditions. Turn 104.



The Central Powers bridgeheads will link-up somewhere during the day. The Beograd Detachment units holding the bunkers west of Semendria are withdrawing.



The Negotin Detachment is starting to arrive in the Drina I Division sector.

Detachment HQ's are more suitable for falling back and advancing than the Serbian divisional HQ's as the divisional HQ's automatically switch to Out of Command when making any kind of move and won't participate in the supply and C&C checks on the turn after moving.

The Branicevo Detachment is approaching the Mlava river crossings.



The Sumadija II Division vacated Knjazevac yesterday. The Bulgarians will capture it next turn.

It's good practice to jump at any opportunities for ambushes that you can think of as the Serbian player, as you have to be crafty due to being seriously outnumbered.

A battalion of the 9th Plevenska Division in T-mode (highlighted at the southern edge of the screenshot) lost contact with the unit trailing it due to the elevation increase and lost half its strength men when assaulted by units from the Sumadija II Division.

Direct fire took out 50 and Disrupted the Bulgarian unit. The first assault failed (my battalion Disrupted), but the second succeeded in taking out ~500 men.



The Bulgarian 3rd Balkanska Division marched into the sector hot on the heels of the Krivopalanska Detachment yesterday.

Initial direct fire exchanges cost both sides several hundred men, with Bulgarian losses being 1.5x to 2x as high as mine.

Even though a Bulgarian field gun unit was at the frontline for a day, I believe only two guns were lost. The third Central Powers gun loss since yesterday happened at Visegrad, I believe.

The French have redeployed over the last two days to watch the Pcinja crossings.

[ComradeP]

Day 15, 06:00 October 21st 1915. Mud conditions. Turn 112.



Kosmaj hill has to be held until turn 126, so the Beograd Detachment will start to hold their ground soon.

The first Landsturm units from the Division Sorsich that initially faced the Danube II Division should start arriving soon near Valjevo.



After taking a closer look at the road network, and given the withdrawals from the fortresses, the bulk of the Branicevo detachment will head back towards its rearguard and cross the Mlava at the light bridge/ford. It's important to keep in mind that T-mode non-foot units can't use light bridges, which can complicate things for cavalry and field gun units (or army HQ's). When the weather improves, the retreat should proceed at a normal pace on the trails in the area.

The Negotin Detachment is trading bloody blows with German forces at Svilajnac so the Drina I Division can withdraw in good order.



Forces at Nis deploy in a wide screen in and around the fortress. This is merely a move to slow down the Bulgarians. No attempt will be made to hold Nis, as it needs to be held until turn 237 (!) and that simply isn't going to happen. It doesn't matter if I evacuate Nis in a few days or lose it on turn 236, the result is still 0 points. This way, however, I retreat on my terms.

The Tumba Detachment will move north to the bend in the Juzna Morava where it meets the Toplica river. The Vlasina Detachment will hold Leskovac until strong Bulgarian forces arrive.



Not much happening in this sector. The Krajina Detachment has arrived in Zajechar from the north and will keep moving west. The Combined Division will pull out of Zajechar soon, leaving a border guard screen (the blue units) until those are withdrawn. No attempt will be made to hold the fortress until turn 157, when the objective expires.

[ComradeP]

Day 16. 06:00 October 22nd 1915. Mud conditions. Turn 120.



The Combined Detachment of the Beograd Detachment is having some difficulty with the Landsturm mountain units, but will hold the objective on the hill until it expires.

Palanka has to be held by the Danube I Division until turn 126 and that will be a close call too, but after a large field gun stack murdered ~450 overstacked Germans which happened to move in a three battalion stack to prepare for an assault against a Cadre battalion, the advance slowed down just enough to hold the objective.

I did lose a B quality MG unit from the Danube I Division when the stack it was in was assaulted and forced to retreat.

Field gun/MG units being likely to take most of the losses when assaulted if the infantry battalion in their stack is Disrupted is the reason why I prefer to keep support weapons behind the infantry holding frontline. That, in turn, is why most of my field gun and MG units haven't done much for most of the game due to visibility being 1. MG units in particular can disappear at staggering rates during enemy assaults.

As an aside, that's a major handicap for he Austro-Hungarian formations in 1914. The mostly D/E morale MG units are likely to Disrupt if they take opportunity fire when switching to T-mode, which means you can't move them out of the hex in most cases. All the Serbian player has to do is fire and assault and you start to lose MG units left and right.



After both sides lost several hundred men, the Negotin Detachment and German forces opposing them switched to some skirmishing. That gave the Drina I Division the time it needed to rationalize its defensive positions and allow the battalions on the other side of the Velika Morava to join the rest of the formation by crossing the bridge west of Svilajnac during the night.

In case you're wondering why I'm not screening the river: the Germans have no bridging units in this area, and ferrying units across by boats is slow and risky. They would also be Isolated.



The Combined Division and the Krajina Detachment (green) use the primary road to head west. As mentioned in the commentary for last turn, Zajechar will be held by border guard companies for the rest of the day.



Now that all three divisions in the area are more or less aligned, the evacuation of Nis can proceed. The pink units belong to Fortress Nis. The Fortress HQ has no movement points so it will be destroyed a couple of times when the Bulgarians bump into it after it is initially destroyed and reappears.

[ComradeP]

Day 17. 06:00 October 23rd 1915. Mud conditions. Turn 128.



The first Landsturm units appear near Valjevo and will soon appear in front of the Uzice Detachment (red). Valjevo has to be held until the end of turn 142.

Pressure on the Danube I Division at Palanka is mounting, so it will keep pulling back. This was the point where I knew holding Kragujevac wasn't going to happen, but my plans were already based on losing it before it expired.



I'm beginning to pull back the units manning the outer fortifications in Nis. Some field gun and cavalry units will take a detour to the north-west as they can only use the bridges west or south of Nis or the bridge at Aleksinac.



Redeployments are complete, the sector is otherwise quiet. The three units at the bottom of the screenshot are border guard companies that will withdraw soon. They currently act as early warning for the movements of the Bulgarian independent cavalry brigade in the area.



Stalemate in the Kumanovo area, which is fine with me.

The Vranje objective expired on turn 126. The Sumadija I Division will move north to Leskovac using the trail through the woods. It should arrive in 5-6 days, depending on the weather.




The second brigade of the 156e DI is starting to arrive. Border guard companies and French cavalry units screen the Vardar river crossings.

In both WWI and WWII, the French colonial cavalry is excellent. The 7 speed, B quality Chasseur d'Afrique have 46 (!) MP's. They are Detached, unfortunately, due to their higher HQ (the Armée d'Orient HQ) being Fixed at the map edge.



The Bulgarian Rilska Division is starting to arrive in larger numbers in the east. It's facing the lead elements of the reservists of the French 57e DI, some Cadre battalions from the Bregalnica Division and some border guard companies. Barely a screen, but more Entente reinforcements are coming.

The bulk of the Bregalnica Division has crossed the Vardar river at various points, mostly using ferries. The various components will reform into a normal division at Veles and cross the Vardar again with an offensive posture.



The bulk of the Montenegrin Army is arriving. I have until turn 216 to recapture Visegrad. Plenty of time.

The 6th Pec Division will move into Kosovo towards Pristina. Its second brigade has a 15% daily arrival chance so it might take a while before it arrives.



Losses are quite acceptable overall. I have only a handful of yellow Fatigue units, the Cadre battalions that held Kosmaj hill. I've recovered about 8000 men compared to my initial strength, I believe, so about 1/3 of my losses.

[ComradeP]

Day 18. October 24th 1915. Soft conditions. Turn 136.

All screenshots taken at the start of my turn.



Arandjelovac has to be held until turn 149, which shouldn't be a problem. The Sokol Brigade and parts of the Morava II Division are enough to keep the Landsturm from capturing Valjevo on time.



The Negotin Detachment has crossed the Velika Morava, other forces are still pulling back in good order.

The Krajina Detachment heads north, the Combined Division west/south-west.



The evacuation of Nis is proceeding in an orderly manner.

Historically, the Serbians lost (most of) the guns in the various fortifications, but you can evacuate them in the campaign scenario.



The last units of the 156e DI are arriving, and as the Bulgarians don't make a move, it's time to make mine.

As it seems the Bulgarian bicycle recon screen is gone, the French will use the small valley north-east of Dobrosane to flank the Bulgarian position. They'll be spotted at some point, but not immediately.



One cavalry brigade from the Cavalry Division between Vranje and Kumanovo will move south-east.

The other two keep the Bulgarian independent cavalry brigade in check that's probing for weak spots in the area west of Vranje.



More Bulgarian units arrive in the east, but nothing to worry about for the moment. They're prohibited from entering Greece and I can always pull back across the Vardar river. The railroad was open long enough to allow all units of the 156e DI to join their compatriots near Kumanovo.

[ComradeP]

Day 19. October 25th 1915. Soft conditions. Turn 144.



Over time, the line will straighten from the Drina to Kragujevac. The Danube II, Morava II and Drina II Divisions together with the Beograd Detachment will accelerate their withdrawal to make sure they keep in contact with the Danube I Division which is once again under serious pressure from the Germans, holding back several corps by itself.



The Drina I Division crossed the Velika Morava safely, most of the Branicevo Detachment is safe as well.

The Negotin Detachment and the Drina I Division will reform and engage the flank of the Germans units north-east of Kragujevac.



The evacuation of Nis is nearly complete, with the only unit remaining in the fortress being the Fortress Nis HQ that will soon be destroyed for the first time.



This sector is quiet, the Sumadija I Division is making good progress with its redeployment in the improved weather.



The French were spotted by aerial recon, but it should at least be possible to force the Balkanska Division to withdraw towards the hills.

The Timok II Division might also be able to knock out the reservist brigade in the north.



Not much happening near Visegrad. I warned my opponent about the arrival of the Montenegrin forces, as I wasn't sure if he was aware of my arrivals, so he wouldn't try to make a push that would end with the Landsturm units badly exposed.

[ComradeP]

Day 19. 18:00 October 25th. Soft conditions. Turn 150.

Start of my turn.



Disaster for the Bulgarians as the Balkanska Division is encircled and the only rescue force available is the mostly E quality Makedonska Division that's currently on the road near the map marker for the Kriva Reka river west of Cifte Han in the screenshot.

As my opponent felt the strategic situation was becoming more unfavourable, with narrowly missing out on capturing a number of objectives on time and that although the loss of the 3rd Balkanska Division would be compensated for by the arrival of the 5th Dunavska Division in the next few days, the Bulgarian 2nd Army offensive could not be resumed due to the initiative being with the Serbian/Entente forces, he conceded.

Closing comments:

Overall, I'm happy with the result and with how my defensive strategy worked until this point. I would've liked to move the Branicevo detachment to safety using a less complicated route, but in the end they reached safety before the Germans could cut them off. Most objectives in the north were held until they expired. From this point on, the turns of expiry would be more ambitious to meet and there's no way I could've held Kragujevac until turn 206 with the available forces without risking the committed units being decimated by the Germans. Considering that fewer divisions were used in the north than was historically the case, I'm surprised it was possible to hold most objectives. It was unexpected, but my delaying tactics worked.

I'm not sure how the fortresses facing the Bulgarians can be held without risking the troops protecting them suffering serious losses. Combat is very lethal in PzC/FWWC and battalions can lose more than 100 men per turn regularly. You'll be bled white on a scale that historically wasn't possible. Without having read historical accounts, it's difficult to figure out why the Bulgarian advance was slow in this area. There are some mountains but the terrain is otherwise not particularly difficult compared to the northern front. Serbian forces are outnumbered at least 2:1 everywhere. It's not densely wooded ánd rugged like the area the area around Valjevo.

According to one account, Serbian commanders were worried when they were losing 100 men per day, per a division during the trench war period between the 2nd and 3rd Invasions in 1914. They would turn mad with despair when they would lose 100 men per battalion, every 2 hours.

The Macedonian front features lengthy stretches of empty space and a limited amount of difficult terrain. That makes using Chetnik forces there less ideal for my defensive strategy, as the goal is to stop and not merely delay the (initial wave of) Bulgarian divisions. You need regular units to stop the attacker.

Chetniks work best when A) There's a lot of difficult terrain and the attacker has to use roads/trails to move more than 1 hex each turn and B) A big part of the firepower of the attacking forces comes from field guns/MG's/artillery. Neither situation applies in most of Macedonia east of Skoplje.

Bulgarian field gun units are numerous, but they will be Low Ammo for most of the game due to the low value Bulgarian supply sources resulting in <20 local supply in most areas. Due to the recent changes, local supply values below 20 result in field gun units not being able to recover from Low Ammo status. Bulgarian MG units, like their Serbian counterparts, have only 60 Men per infantry regiment. Considering that Bulgarian infantry regiments are full strength at 4 battalions, that means relatively speaking the infantry battalions themselves will have to inflict most of the damage.

You cán use Chetniks with good effect against the Bulgarians near the fortresses, but I prefer to use them mostly against the Austro-Hungarians and Germans. The Timok and Juzna Morava river will slow the Bulgarians down more than any Chetniks used in the area. A forward defense at the fortresses also has the built-in risk of being outflanked by the Germans from the north or the Bulgarian 2nd Army coming in from the south.

My strategy focused on creating a situation where I could parry blows with available forces, and had enough units in every sector to prevent a breakthrough. It's a fine balancing act, but it worked. In Macedonia, my Entente reinforcements trickled in at about the same rate as Bulgarian reinforcements, which combined with moving two divisions in from the central and northern sectors created favourable conditions for limited counterattacks.

The overall goal was to preserve the integrity of the Serbian Army at all costs. That worked well. No formations were ever close to becoming ineffective for combat purposes. The short days really help in that regard: 6 turns of action and 2 night turns of rest make it easy to keep Fatigue in green numbers (below 100).

I don't think my opponent made any serious strategic errors. Stacking multiple battalions in a hex is usually a bad idea in FWWC due to the unit density casualty multiplier, but in this case I don't think his losses were much higher than they would've been if he had moved units as single battalions. Aside from a few situations where I could hit stacks hard with fire from field guns and MG's or massed rifle fire, the terrain and weather conditions prevented me from moving units around to attack larger stacks during my part of the turn.

Moving units as stacks also significantly reduces opportunity fire, another reason why I think moving units as 2 battalion stacks as the Central Powers can work well here in non-clear terrain.

It does limit the frontage a unit holds, which eventually led to a situation where the 3rd Balkanska Division could be encircled. My opponent wasn't aware that the French units encircling him were not a small force but the best French division present in the scenario, which led to him only pulling back his left wing a bit instead of pulling back the divisions.

I've reported the result as a minor victory as a major victory would either require the destruction of a very large number of Central Powers forces to compensate for objective point losses, which is unlikely, or exiting a large number of units, and I didn't intend to do so.

It's a quick to play and very enjoyable campaign scenario, a good effort by Volcano Man and the team.