Command tests: Base chance = global or local supply?

[Mowgli]

Hi guys!

I'm currently in a PBEM in FWC:Serbia 1914, playing the scenario #1914_0917_01 Jarak as the Serbians.
Despite a global supply value of 40% and decent commanders that are stationary (no OOC due to movement) and well within command range of each other, my HQs fail about 90% of their command tests. On average, my HQs have been active perhaps once or twice in the 14 turns played so far.

So I wonder: Is this all just an impressive streak of bad luck on my behalf? Or is it that command tests work differently than described in the manual (p. 61)? My suspicion is that the command tests use LOCAL supply (which is about 10% for most of my HQs' current positions due to bad weather and mediocre supply sources) rather than GLOBAL supply (40%)?

[CheerfullyInsane]

I'm no expert on the systems in the JTS games, but I think you're right.

Take a look at p.74
"In scenarios where Supply Sources are used, these values take precedence over that side’s Global Supply Value for non naval units on the map."

"When supply issues are being resolved for a unit in a given hex, the Local Supply Value that applies to that hex is used. If there are no Supply Sources in the scenario for that side, then the Global Supply Value is used for this purpose."

So Global Supply is only used in scenarios without supply-sources, or for naval units.

[ComradeP]

Coincidence. If you create a scenario with 100% Global supply and 1% Local supply, Deployed HQ's will always be in command (with default optional rules).

The variability can be far greater than you might expect for 40% Global Supply values, but in the case of Jarak there are at most 3 command levels present for each formation due to there being no corps HQ's on the map.

This can be both good and bad due to the trickle down effect of the command tests, but you can park the army HQ's directly behind the division/brigade HQ's here.

[Ricky B]

Agree with ComradeP - playing a Stalingrad campaign a long time ago, the Soviets were always in supply later in the battle, as they had a positive supply boost or two and ended up with a global supply setting of 110 or so. The local supply was worse, but it didn't hurt nearly as much with HQs always in command.

Rick

[Mowgli]

Agree with ComradeP - playing a Stalingrad campaign a long time ago, the Soviets were always in supply later in the battle, as they had a positive supply boost or two and ended up with a global supply setting of 110 or so. The local supply was worse, but it didn't hurt nearly as much with HQs always in command.

Rick

Okay, so I'm really just incredibly unlucky it seems. 
Thanks for cleraring that up for me, guys! :)

Just to make sure (leaving aside being automatically ooc due to movement and travel mode): 

1) All HQs first test on global supply. 
2) If a HQ fails the first test but its directly superior HQ (if any) is in command this turn, it gets a second test like so: 

current command range of superior HQ / (distance between the HQs + current command range of superior HQ)

[ComradeP]

Correct, though for the second chance to be in command I'm not entirely sure what happens if the HQ is Detached/not in range of its higher HQ.

When I ran a test with Jarak, I had turns when most of my HQ's were OOC, followed by turns where only 1 was. You rarely see such situations in PzC because Global supply values tend to be higher and more HQ levels are involved.

[Ricky B]

I believe that is correct, although I didn't look at the manual to see. If the parent HQ is only in command 40% of the time, then #2 won't apply too often.

FYI, I would say bad luck, or you are focused on the bad results you see and forget the better ones. Or maybe math, but I believe you have that down. I see there are 5 Serb HQs, so a 90% failure rate would mean only 1 HQ every other turn, on average, in command.

I ran a test, and in 6 turns, no doing anything at all, the in command ranged from 4 out of 5 to 0 out of 5. I didn't calculate it but I would expect it would average around 2 per turn, or 40%, from the small set of results. Similar for the AH forces, who also are at 40%. I was surprised by the wild swings in failures though.

Anyway looks like bad luck based on my test. Try it yourself further and see what happens - just start a new battle HTH and end the turns and check what happens. I would expect better than 1 HQ every other turn.