Japan '46 Operation Coronet Allied AAR

[Tempest5]

I don't think it would unbalance the scenario. It would make the initial landing go a little smoother for the Americans, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Unless you get off the beaches in the opening turns and land units in phases instead of when they arrive, you're going to take a beating on the beaches.

Floating HQ's would help with Disruption and ammunition checks.

Though I made the comment about Engineers, it also applies to the tanks and LVT's that land, as those also won't have an on-map HQ for a while.

The situation is worse for Corps troops, as the Corps HQ arrives later than divisional HQ's. Divisional HQ's arrive on turn 4 and 5, Corps HQ's on turn 11.

I just play single player but I see what you are saying. Gonna take a look at that.

Just for giggles I made up a graphics counter...now research the data for a floating NAV AGC HQ unit that leaves in 5 turns.
FWIW I have LEARNED to land in phases but it can still be brutal.

[Green]

ComradeP

Absolutely brilliant AAR! There is a ton of useful information here to allow the campaign to be improved.

I think that the high Japanese quality is a key issue, just as it is in J45. Personally, I am not sure there should be any quality A Japanese. Fixing this one issue would have many flow on effects that would help improve balance. Also a more delayed release schedule for the Japanese would seem to make a lot of sense.

I suspect the new corps attachment rules will solve the problem you mention regarding the inflexible Japanese command structure. Also the new default optional rules would presumably help the Allies but not to anything like the extent needed.

Some of the parameter data values need to be tweaked. Unit recovery rates are a possible example. Even before quality is considered the Japanese rate is twice the Allied rate. In a long campaign this makes a big difference. Particularly for an outnumbered attacker.

There is much food for thought here. 

I minor point is that loss recovery is not affected by whether a unit is combined or broken down. If it was, that would be a bug. The chance of recovery is simply based on losses. A unit with 150 losses would recover the same number on average as three component units with 50 losses each. Perhaps I misunderstood what you are saying.

John

[ComradeP]

Absolutely brilliant AAR! There is a ton of useful information here to allow the campaign to be improved.

Thanks for the compliment.

I was afraid it wouldn't be that interesting to read due to the frontline moving in very small steps on most days.

I think that the high Japanese quality is a key issue, just as it is in J45. Personally, I am not sure there should be any quality A Japanese. Fixing this one issue would have many flow on effects that would help improve balance. Also a more delayed release schedule for the Japanese would seem to make a lot of sense.

It's less of an issue than it was in Japan '45, I'd say, as at least B quality units have a chance to become Disrupted when they take losses. Theoretically, A quality units can also become Disrupted if they take losses to the extent that Fatigue becomes 100 or higher, or if they're Low Ammo, but that doesn't happen too often.

I don't think it would make much difference if the Naval Landing units were B. Given the firepower penalties imposed by terrain and trenches or fortifications, it would still be very difficult to throw them out of Fujisawa.

On both invasion fronts, the bulk of the Japanese divisions present is not at the frontline. Releases being delayed by a few days for units beyond Tokyo would still mean the Japanese have enough units to form a solid frontline. My western advance was already more or less stalled before Japanese reinforcements from the north showed up.

It would help if many of the various militia and Boeitai units would be Fixed for the duration in their own city. They were intended as a local defence force, but they're currently a large addition to the field armies.

Some of the parameter data values need to be tweaked. Unit recovery rates are a possible example. Even before quality is considered the Japanese rate is twice the Allied rate. In a long campaign this makes a big difference. Particularly for an outnumbered attacker.

As the Victory Dialog shows, Japanese losses can be very rough so the recovery rate by itself might need to be this high to prevent the Japanese army from rapidly losing cohesion. My strategic problem is that I can't put enough pressure on the Japanese in most sectors for their losses to matter, which is why I'm currently pushing along the coast in the east. The Navy inflicts terrible losses on Japanese units in Field hexes.

I minor point is that loss recovery is not affected by whether a unit is combined or broken down. If it was, that would be a bug. The chance of recovery is simply based on losses. A unit with 150 losses would recover the same number on average as three component units with 50 losses each. Perhaps I misunderstood what you are saying.

I wrote "loss recovery" and meant the recovery of losses, not the Recovery mechanic. I also mention the Replacement mechanic.

Though you're correct that Recovery is based on a percentage of losses, units with additional components can still Recover losses more efficiently as my usual deployment is 2 companies at the frontline and 1 (3 component unit) or 2 (4 component unit) in the rear.

With 3 components, 1/3 of the battalion can Recover/receive Replacements each turn. With 4 components, 1/2 the battalion can rest and Recover/receive Replacements per turn. Aside from more efficient Fatigue management, that is one of the good parts about units with 4 or more components.

[Green]

That all makes sense to me. I guess the big question is, how bad do you believe the balance is?

You are about a quarter of the way through this campaign. Doing some quick calcs to get a feel for the situation it appears that the Allies are inflicting considerably higher losses than they are sustaining. Just looking at men, the Allied total in the campaign is 187,000 plus 14,000 for the two strategic option divisions which gives a total of 201,000. They have lost 45,000 and so have 156,000 remaining. The Japanese total of 352,000 men has been reduced by losses of 152,000 so that 200,000 remain. Ignoring replacements. If this trend were to continue then there would be no Japanese survivors by the end of the campaign.

This is too simplistic as not all men are equal and it ignores guns, vehicles, ships and planes. Looking at the points values we see that the Allied net gain in points (ignoring objectives) is around 13,000. To achieve a major victory you need another 15,000. Even if you take no more objectives, a continuation of the trend would suggest you will obtain this long before turn 600.

Given that the expectation would not have been for such a static situation to develop, I am not trying to suggest the campaign is pro-Allied but there seems to be potentially two problems. The Allies cannot create breakthroughs but they can win in spite of that. Have I got this right? If so, does it mean that the objectives need to be increased so that they are more pro-Japanese while at the same time making changes to the game that are pro-Allied? 

What am I missing? You are immersed in the game and will be aware of many things that I am not. How do you see things playing out over time. What would you say is wrong and how would you fix it? Sorry to bombard you with questions but I find trying to wrap my mind around a 600 turn game is next to impossible.

[ComradeP]

I doubt most frontline Japanese formations, aside from those recently targeted by heavy bombers or the Navy, are below 75% or so strength. There are enough Japanese units to rotate them.

Japanese losses are stiff, but they don't always have to be.

The density of Japanese units at the frontline is quite high. That's something the Japanese player can afford, but it does result in higher losses as numerous units are holding suboptimal positions with lower defensive benefits.

The Japanese don't really have much of an incentive to hold the frontline hex opposing my units in strength, but my opponent does so. The Japanese only need to hold a fairly short line to keep the US forces out of Tokyo due to the rivers in the area.

The Japanese forward defence in strength results in higher losses. I'm mostly fighting in range of the Navy's guns, in a fairly small area where I can concentrate artillery units to cover most of the front. That's changing in the III Marine Amphibious Corps sector, but it was the case for most of the game thus far.

Due to the way direct fire works, it's difficult for the US forces to establish firepower superiority. Though the relative decrease in firepower from terrain, trenches and fortifications as a percentage is the same for all units, the decrease in terms of reduction in the SA value is higher for the US forces due to higher base SA value's.

The firepower gap is quite small for entrenched units in Brush/Forest terrain and firing with my regular Army infantry units usually accomplishes little.

The Japanese can draw artillery fire by firing with entrenched battalion MG units from two hexes away and then fire on US forces with the infantry battalions. My opponent uses only a limited amount of direct fire, mostly relying on assaults.

The assaults are costly for both sides, though the losses favour the Japanese 1:2. The losses from the USAAF and artillery on my turn punish the Japanese to the extent that the Japanese can't keep assaulting for more than 3-4 turns in a sector. Launching assaults all along the front could be effective, but thus far assaults have been concentrated in a handful of sectors.

I'm still convinced that the Japanese can remove XIV Corps from its sector, either destroying it or throwing it into the X Corps area. Even a slight withdrawal by XIV Corps makes landing reinforcements in the area difficult, due to the Japanese holding the hexes north of the beaches.

US units are less capable of absorbing losses due to, on average, lower quality than Japanese units and smaller unit size.

I think, on average, US losses would normally be much higher by this point.

A US victory is not a certainty, but things are starting to look good for the US.

[Green]

OK. So, if I summarize this, you are saying that you do not think the losses in your campaign are necessarily typical. The US losses are probably low and the Japanese losses are probably high. Also the Japanese losses will be considerably less than they appear as units are rotated to assist in the recovery of losses. You are doing better than may normally be expected. A US victory in not a certainty but is good possibility. Sorry for over-simplifying but I want to see the big picture. I am not ignoring the detail but just putting some things to one side.

The situation is hypothetical but looking at the situation maps provided in the game your progress is less than expected. The situation with XIV Corps is particularly concerning in terms of what would have been hoped for. Obviously it is meant to be a slow grind but I would say some adjustment is required to make the campaign a bit more fluid. And a corresponding increase in victory levels would presumably be necessary to compensate for this.

At some point, although I am not sure when, J46 scenarios will be looked at in terms of re-balancing as a consequence of the new default optional rules. This was, or still is, being done for J45. Because of your experience with this campaign, any suggestions that you and Elxaime provide will be an important part of that process. And apart from anything else, any testing of the campaign is unlikely to approach the number of turns you have reached, so your AAR is particularly valuable. It gives a reference for comparison with any testing that is done, which will be very helpful.

John

[ComradeP]

So much for regular updates. The game is still going strong, we're now at turn 201.

16th of March 04:00 Mud conditions Turn 151



Mud means little progress is likely to be made, and at this point I was not sure what the best approach would be on the left flank. I expected heavy resistance around Kamijima.

Until the weather improves, the armour won't do much more than shotgun some unfortunate Japanese units from 1 hex away, though Japanese opportunity fire knocked out some vehicles.

On the right flank XIV Corps is digging in. The row of bunkers that will soon appear between Chogo and Fujisawa forces the adjacent Japanese units back to avoid taking small but continuous losses from direct fire without a chance to return the favour. The Japanese are also building a bunker line.



7th ID is still spread out along the roads leading east/north/north-east. The weather doesn't have an effect on Primary roads, so aside from sidestepping an unlabelled at this zoom level (Shiiki-jiku) RUBBLE hex north-west of Chojamachi, the redeployment back to the frontline proceeds at a rapid pace.



4th Marine Division is redeploying and will move towards the north-east, following the 6th Marine Division.

The 97th ID is moving in from the east to relieve the 1st Marine Division. Meanwhile, XXIV Corps engineers are busy fortifying the woods north of Honno.

There are two Japanese A quality divisions in the area and I don't think the 97th ID would last long against a determined assault without bunkers, as the fleet will start moving north soon as well to make sure Japanese targets spotted by 6th Marine Division stay in range.

Heavy bombers, which can carpet bomb, are very effective, but their availability rises and decrease like a tide of sorts over the course of several days. Soon, only a handful of heavy bombers will be available for several days.

[ComradeP]

16th of March 14:00 Turn 156:



After some reorganization, X Corps will attack west to push the Japanese back up the hills towards Fudakake and away from the road network to the north. Uphill assaulting is difficult, but every hex helps.

The Japanese division there is C quality and Old Style, which has 24 movement points instead of the 30 or 33 that other the other Japanese infantry type units get. That makes it difficult for them to redeploy even in good weather.



As mentioned in the previous post, redeployment of the 7th ID is greatly helped by the Primary roads in the area. The tail end is already east of Matsusaki.



Most of the 4th Marine Division has disengaged by now. A line of tanks south of Togane blocks Japanese LOS so 4th Marine Division can use a Trail to move east and 97th ID the Secondary road south of there to move west.

[ComradeP]

17th of March 04:00 Soft Conditions Turn 161:



Weather conditions have improved slightly, but we'll need Normal conditions for the next push. To make any kind of real progress, being able to move and assault in Clear, Brush or Village/Town terrain is a necessity in order to be able to launch follow-up attacks or to pull back Disrupted units and assault with fresh units.

A pile of engineers is clearing RUBBLE in Zemba in the X Corps sector and Kadosawabashi in the XIV Corps sector, but it will take them a while to do so unfortunately.

I think it was during this day that, at some point, there was a Partisan unit two hexes of the 50 point beachfront objective at Fujisawa. As Partisans don't exert a ZOC and the Japanese unit directly next to the objective can't ZOC-block the beach, I decided to land the remaining units.

As assaulting the Partisans would have been a bit gamey, I refrained from doing so.

One battalion of the 38th ID took a beating, but losses were otherwise acceptable. Some XIV and XIII Corps assets, 4 battalions of the 38th ID (I originally thought 3 couldn't land safely, as I wrote earlier) and an armoured infantry battalion of 13th Armoured could land. All Allied units that arrived earlier but couldn't land were on-map after that.



XXIV Corps and the 1st Marine division bumped into a Japanese bunker line almost immediately when attacking north of Honno, so the offensive started a few days ago was cancelled after capturing a couple of hexes. Still, it puts more space between the Japanese and the Primary road and I can now fortify the Forest.

The tail end of 7th ID is still south of this screenshot.

As you can see, rolling up the Japanese line along the coast is still going well. 6th Marine Division met limited resistance so far, but resistance is stiffening as units approach the Primary road (in the Brush hexes where you can see a Japanese AT gun unit). The tank LOS-blocking screen allows units to move in T-mode without risk of being hammered by Japanese artillery.

The Japanese chose to withdraw from the first bunker hexes we encountered. We'll soon run into an infrastructure dilemma as the regimental HQ's are motorized and the area to the north-east consists of Field hexes which they can only enter along a road. That will explain the peculiar deployment you'll soon see.

It also explains why I'm careful to clear all the mines in Beach hexes, as all units can move through those hexes. For tracked units, it's also a convenient way to bypass all the Medium bridges. The Secondary road next to the beach has proven to be very helpful thus far.

[ComradeP]

17th of March 14:00 Turn 166:




X Corps is making slow but steady progress. In terms of Fatigue gain, it's a costly process as the terrain Fatigue modifier for assaults isn't kind to C quality units.



Without tanks to hide behind, Marine losses are increasing but they're still acceptable. I move a company into contact, whack the Japanese with a naval bombardment and napalm strikes and assault if a unit is Disrupted. Losses are entirely unsustainable for the Japanese in the Field hexes, so they can do little more than delay my progress. However, in this weather I can only move 1 Field hex per turn in any case.

Meanwhile, the 1st Marine Division has disengaged and will soon move north-east.

The 7th ID will help the 97th ID hold the area north of Honno until bunkers have been constructed in the Forest hexes.