Tiller Modern European Campaigns and logistics

[jim pfleck]

Johhny, from what is in the public sphere, the Russians are losing a lot of vehicles moving down roads and abandoning them offroad at high rates. Between the fighting and heavy tanks the roads are taking a beating too. Public info has to be taken with a grain of salt because the Ukrainians are dominating English language communications in this war, but just from publicly available photos that are being compiled and cross checked, the Russians are losing a lot of vehicles to mud and ambush. And more recently artillery.

[jonnymacbrown]

Johhny, from what is in the public sphere, the Russians are losing a lot of vehicles moving down roads and abandoning them offroad at high rates. Between the fighting and heavy tanks the roads are taking a beating too. Public info has to be taken with a grain of salt because the Ukrainians are dominating English language communications in this war, but just from publicly available photos that are being compiled and cross checked, the Russians are losing a lot of vehicles to mud and ambush. And more recently artillery.

Here is a map 3 weeks into the operation:

From what I can gather the Russians have complete air supremacy, Ukraine has no operational air bases with the bulk of their army surrounded in the Donbass (purple area).

[Indragnir]

Johhny, from what is in the public sphere, the Russians are losing a lot of vehicles moving down roads and abandoning them offroad at high rates. Between the fighting and heavy tanks the roads are taking a beating too. Public info has to be taken with a grain of salt because the Ukrainians are dominating English language communications in this war, but just from publicly available photos that are being compiled and cross checked, the Russians are losing a lot of vehicles to mud and ambush. And more recently artillery.

Here is a map 3 weeks into the operation:

From what I can gather the Russians have complete air supremacy, Ukraine has no operational air bases with the bulk of their army surrounded in the Donbass (purple area).

This map is pure fantasy. Try other more serious (WSJ, IWS, Rob Lee, Suryak, Jomini of the West etc etc). They don't even control their rear roads. They are losing ground at Kvyiv and Mikolaiev.
The ONLY Ucranian forces surronded today is Mariupol (23 days cut off, 35% of the city taken by the Russian side.)
Check Oryx visual confirmed casualties: Russia - 1706, of which: destroyed: 827, damaged: 32, abandoned: 221, captured: 626. Every single one is documented via photo or video with date added. Among them 270 tanks, 177 AFV,  258 IFV, 78 APC, 123 Artillery pieces, 49 SAM vehicles, 15 aircrafts and 35 helicopters.)

I'm afraid you know very little of what is happening in reality at Ukraine right now if you compare what USA did in Iraq (military related) against what Russia is achieving in Ukraine (military related)

[jonnymacbrown]

I'm afraid you know very little of what is happening in reality at Ukraine right now

Indragnir: You say my map is fantasy. Here is the WSJ map dated March 15: I don't see too much difference between it and the one I posted

So the Russians have taken losses. It's war. I don't know what is happening and, I suspect neither do you. I do know however that the WSJ, WaPo, NYT, CBS, NBC, ABC are all propaganda arms for the American Democrat Party as are maybe some of the other sources you cite. Personally I don't believe that the Ukrainian Army has captured over 600 Russian AFV. Finally I didn't compare the US Army to the Russian Army. Two different wars. I only pointed out it took the Americans 20 days to take Baghdad. Twenty days in and Kiev is practically cut off as is Kharkov. There is a lot of anti-Russian hate nowadays and I can feel it from you and some of the other people on this thread. jonny

[Ricky B]

Any more of this and I will lock this down. Getting way too political now, and off topic.

[Indragnir]

Any more of this and I will lock this down. Getting way too political now, and off topic.

Thank you Rick. No point on keep arguing.

[Plain Ian]

As an old boardgamer I frequent the CSW Forum. A lot of game designers in these forums who know their military history whether its current or old. 

In the Potential Conflicts folder Ty Bomba posted links to maps which he 'feels' depict the situation. 

CSW Forum - Putin Strikes: The Coming War for Eastern Europe (consimworld.com)


Ian

[LordDeadwood]

As an old boardgamer I frequent the CSW Forum. A lot of game designers in these forums who know their military history whether its current or old. 

In the Potential Conflicts folder Ty Bomba posted links to maps which he 'feels' depict the situation. 

CSW Forum - Putin Strikes: The Coming War for Eastern Europe (consimworld.com)


Ian

Those maps are the same ones being published by Jomini of the West on Twitter. I don't do Twitter but you can read his posts here. Maybe Jomini is Ty Bomba? idk, but I agree they seem to be good maps.

[Aolain]

Tempest5Like everyone here, I have been watching the Russian Army 'advance' into Ukraine.
I am starting to rethink EVERYTHING I have been lead to believe about the Warsaw Pact in the past.
I am near 69 years old-dependent child from a US Army Sgt stationed in Germany 3 times. Late mother was German (oh she had her opinions on the Red Army.)
We lived in Augsburg, Germany in 1968 when the Red Army rolled in tho Czechoslovakia - so the Red Army/Warsaw Pact is not some abstract entity to me.

While I have no doubt Russian kit can be effective when properly used; the institutional incompetence on display now with the Russian Army has me thinking/assuming it was no better in the decades past. When I was in the USAF in the 1980's I knew from my readings SPEZNATZ/VDV Airborne units would target our airbases. Not impressed (horrified actually) what I am witnessing now on this tactic.


So....is logistics/supply/reliability modeled correctly in the Modern European Campaigns in Europe? How would you edit the OoBs to reflect what you see today of the Russian Army.

Thoughts?

The Op asks an interesting question. Can current Russian capabilities be equated to the situation in the 1980s. I don’t think so, but it is a question that cannot now be answered.

[Liebchen]

[quote pid="449244" dateline="1647909415"]
It also blows my mind that Russians would try a blitzkrieg during the Rasputitsa.

All the roads and streets are paved now Liebchen. It's not 1941 anymore.  jonny
[/quote]

Right. Roads are paved, now.

And we all know that the best combat technique is the keep your mech troops on the road.