Low percentile, high hits > winww2 and mbt

[Weasel]

Ok, a long time ago I recorded the results of 200 rifle, mg, and tank shots. The percentile shown was the percentile shown in the message bar once the FIRE button was clicked. The resulting charts shows how many shots hit the target. This does not record kills or anything else, just whether or not you hit the target.

(it keeps messing up my posted chart. The first row is the percentile range, the second is the number of shots fired, the third is number of hits, and fourth is resulting hit percentile.)


shots hits % that hit
1 -10 % 10 3 30
11-20% 32 11 34
21-30% 58 26 44
31-40% 27 9 33
41-50% 26 10 38
51-60% 14 7 50
61-70% 13 5 38
71-80% 13 11 85
81-90% 2 2 100
91-99% 9 8 88


Now you would think that, especially in the first row, that out of 10 shots only 1 would hit, for 10% the highest %. In fact, the overall chance of scoring a hit below 30% is 40% of the time (100 shots, 40 hits). And as I always noted, the 60-70 range most often results in a miss.

It is no wonder then that suppressed infantry turn into supermen and clobber enemy units moving in to finish them off.

Here is another example (which I am sure we have all seen). Just played a turn. I fired, 9% chance to hit, and missed. Target fires back, 1% chance to hit and does, killing one dug in man. I return fire, 8% chance to hit and kill two of him. That works out to 66%!

Anyway, just posted this for discussion and your thoughts on the matter. I have always thought the combat routines were a bit off, and I still stand by my chart above.

[Montana_Prussian]

Yeah,I've noticed much the same. It seems incredible that that you actually have a better 'to hit' at 30% than 70%.

[keif149]

Hmmmmmm, I thought it was just my Polish tankers.

[Grumbler]

I figured it was Murphy (Mars) doing his thang. It's great to know that it's not just me he's jacking up. As long as it's the same for everybody.... So the fog of war is a little patchy. I'm good with that as long as it doesn't play favorites.

[Walrus]

Hi Guys
I kinda agree with Grumbler.
I just don't bother looking at the % when the shot fires.
Fog of War and all that.
I think it all evens out in the end.

Cheers
walrus

[Grumbler]

I just played a turn where I had a soviet rifle squad with exp of 74 fire on an american engineer that was running across a field at 5 hexes. No damage done, but the Engineers fireed back at my rifle squad that was in a rough tree hex where it had sat for the last 3 turns with no supression and created two casualties and created a retreat. THAT ain't right.
I read something about the effectivness of infantry fire being toned down for 3.0 It seemed fine to me before. I think somebody doesn't understand what a 'casualty' is in SP. According to the manual, casualty isn't really the right word. It should be 'removed from combat', but I don't know any one word that covers that. When the yellow bar says 4 casualties, it could be any one of several things. 1 KIA 2 WIA, one scared shitless and unwilling to fight, or 1 that is taking care of the 2 WIA. It doesn't mean 4 KIA.
If one looks at the 'casualties' as all KIAs then yes the numbers are too high, but if one uses the criteria in the SP manual, then NO, they are not to high. You don't have to kill a soldier to render them combat ineffective, which is what the number on the yellow bar represents.
I have also noticed that MG's don't put paid to trucks and jeeps anymore. My Standard answer to the TOW or RR Jeep was a HMG. Squirt it a couple of bursts and watch it burn. No More. I hit a RR jeeep with 12 MG's firing 5 to 6 burts each and then watched the jeep drive off. I chalked it up to the fog of war, but now I'm having doubts.
OK rant over, back to your regularly scheduled program.
:soap:

[retired from gaming]

I obviously seen all of the above, but one thing to remember (I have some troubles with saying it in english, so please forgive if it sounds messy)- when you fire 10 shots with 30% probability it does not mean you get 3 hits overall. It does mean that each INDIVIDUAL shot has 30% probability. It doesnt matter if previuos shot hit or missed, next one is still 30%. I dont know how you call that part of mathematics in english, sorry, but I am sure you all know what I am talking about.

If you we are talking SP wise I agree with Walrus and Grumbler - those numbers mean nothing.

[Vesku]

SP wise it is ok because it is the same for both sides but Chris has just proven what many has suspected, these versions have badly built scripts. Lucky hits now and then will always occur but overall the probability of hitting should equal to the percentage of hits which it does not at the moment. This is one thing that helps those who have been carefully tracking when the probability of hit is not the same as the percentage the game gives you (like the 60-70 category I was unaware of before this).

[Walrus]

Hi Guys

Czerpak, you are perfectly correct with your maths. It is the law of probability.
Interesting point, the makers of "itunes/ipod" had to create a different version of "random" play as they were getting complaints that when you checked random on your playlist, the same band or song would keep showing up. The problem is that if you have 1000 songs and song X has just played, it has the same chance of turning up (1/1000) as every other song...and sometime it will show up. This does not "seem" random to us. So, they had to make a new set of rules for "random", ones that were not quite so random, yet appeared more random...stupid eh :-)

Grumbler. Excellent point and one that the SPCAMO guys have to repeatedly explain to people complaining on the forums. You are perfectly correct, "casualty" does not equal KIA, but more properly means "combat ineffective".

On your other point, I have just brewed up a few of Weasel's truck/ATG combos with rifle fire from a decent distance. I am sure MGs will brew them up just the same. Maybe you were unlucky and the % were against you, in a random kinda way :-)

My main point is this...

The reason I play this game is that it is fun.

It is also bloody frustrating at times, but that only makes the fun bits even better. If I knew that every shot would hit perfectly in line with the %...it would get boring and turn into maths.

The fact that 60% shots miss three time in a row, or a shot that should penetrate doesn't etc. balances up the times when you nearly don't fire because the % is so low, then on a whim change your mind and actually get that lucky kill.

I LOVE those moments, I generally yell out "Hurrah!" loudly enough to piss off the neighbours and sit back with a smile on my face.
Chances are ten minutes later I will be fuming when some high % shot from 50m does NOTHING.

Chris, I totally see where you are coming from, especially when you get an enemy uber warrior shrugging off shots and repeatedly returning effective fire...throwing the laws of probability out the window and annoying the piss out of ya. I do sympathise (except when it is my troops doing the damage and then I will be yelling HURRAH!) and understand your frustration.

However, i will stick to my way of dealing with it...generally ignore the % and try to enjoy the lucky shots you make.
It really does seem to balance out in the end, and it really is the same for all of us.

Bla, Bla, Bla...what do I know.
Cheers All
Walrus

[Vesku]

Sorry about my bad English, shouldn't have written "overall" when I meant "in the long run" because that is exactly what percentage means, the more you try the closer you get or else the percentage is not correct.